Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 17% — a 24pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
15 contracts
Polymarket
17%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
24pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$32K
20 contracts
Top contract
78¢
$12K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 17¢ · 24pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (17¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Miami Heretics win” vs “Will New England win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Miami Heretics win
Will Miami Heretics win the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODGAME-26MAY031630G2MMH-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 3 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-3-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 2 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-2-MH
Cluster 2
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 3
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Cluster 4
New England vs Philadelphia Winner
Cluster 5
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
0x813384…d3c4
Cluster 6
What will be A.J. Brown's next team
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: New England
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-NE
Cluster 7
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 2027
KXINTERSTELLAR-26
Cluster 8
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match
Cluster 9
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match
Cluster 10
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Cluster 11
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand
0x4d3228…c26d
Cluster 12
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: New England Patriots
0xc1e897…df27
Cluster 13
England vs. Croatia: Croatia
England vs. Croatia: Croatia
0x90b9d2…4b13
Cluster 14
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: New England Revolution
0x162c28…b850
What moved the line
- Apr 28New England Revolution↑50pp0→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28New England Patriots↑33pp6→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑33pp34→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑32pp2→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓31pp67→36¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.