Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
964 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 2
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Cluster 3
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 2027
KXINTERSTELLAR-26
Cluster 4
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Analysis
This 28% probability represents the chance that Inter Miami CF will defeat the New England Revolution in an upcoming match. The aggregated estimate masks a significant divergence between betting venues: Kalshi traders price New England's chances at 33%, while Polymarket bettors are notably more pessimistic at 16%. This 17-percentage-point gap suggests disagreement about either team's current form, roster composition, or recent performance metrics. The probability would likely move upward if New England secures key player acquisitions or demonstrates improved performance in upcoming fixtures, and downward if Inter Miami shows strong recent results or injury concerns plague New England. The primary catalyst will be match-day conditions, including confirmed lineups and any late-breaking roster news closer to kickoff.
- ›Kalshi contracts price New England 17 percentage points higher than Polymarket, indicating material disagreement about matchup fundamentals
- ›Recent high-volume trading on Kalshi for New England head coach selection (Mike Vrabel 75¢, Josh McDaniels 15¢) suggests active reassessment of team composition and coaching
- ›A.J. Brown priced at 80¢ to join New England on Kalshi indicates market expectation of significant roster changes that could affect competitive balance
- ›Cross-venue discrepancy (33% vs. 16%) is larger than typical market noise, suggesting different data interpretation or time-lag effects between venues
- ›New England's 3¢ 2027 championship probability on Kalshi suggests structural concerns about medium-term competitiveness despite near-term matchup odds
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before 2027↓5pp31→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Before 2027↑5pp27→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Before 2027↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Inter Miami↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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