Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
965 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Cluster 2
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Cluster 3
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 2027
KXINTERSTELLAR-26
Cluster 4
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Analysis
This probability measures the likelihood that Inter Miami CF will defeat New England Revolution in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregated estimate reflects disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price Miami's win chances at 36%, while Polymarket participants assess it at 22%. The 14-percentage-point gap suggests uncertainty about team form, injury status, and recent performance metrics. The probability would move higher if Miami shows strong home-field performance or New England enters the match with key absences. It would decline if New England demonstrates recent offensive momentum or Miami faces defensive injuries. Resolution depends on the match outcome on the scheduled game date.
- ›Current Miami offensive efficiency and goal-scoring rate over the past 10 matches versus New England's defensive metrics
- ›Injury report status for both teams' key players within 48 hours of kickoff
- ›Head-to-head historical performance and goals conceded/scored in recent meetings between these squads
- ›Home-field advantage factor: whether the match is played in Miami or Boston, and historical performance differential at each venue
- ›Vegas implied win probability for this matchup, if publicly available, as a baseline against prediction market pricing
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before 2027↓5pp31→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Before 2027↑5pp27→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Before 2027↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Inter Miami↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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