Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 25% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Before October
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Apple will announce or release the iPhone 18 before July 1, 2026. The current 47% median estimate masks a significant disagreement between markets: Kalshi traders price it at 41% while Polymarket traders price it at 70%, suggesting uncertainty about Apple's typical announcement timeline and whether "release" means availability or announcement date. The key tension is historical context—Apple typically unveils new iPhones in September, making a pre-July release unusual—against recent signals that the company may accelerate product cycles or introduce new form factors earlier. Apple's next major event and any interim announcements between now and early June would be the primary catalyst for moving this probability meaningfully in either direction.
- ›Apple's standard iPhone launch window is September; pre-July release would deviate significantly from established pattern
- ›Polymarket's 29-point premium suggests traders there may be interpreting broader product cycle changes or reading different signals about 2026 timing
- ›The 92¢ Polymarket contract on "iPhone 18 in 2026" overall suggests high confidence in 2026 release, but the July deadline constrains this substantially
- ›No scheduled Apple event confirmed for May-June 2026 as of the current date; absence of announcement by mid-June would make pre-July delivery extremely unlikely
- ›Contract volume is relatively modest across venues, indicating limited deep liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information
What moved the line
- May 6Before October↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.