Will Otzma Yehudit finish 3rd in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 9% chance that Otzma Yehudit will finish as the third-largest party by seat count in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election. The probability reflects Otzma Yehudit's current polling position relative to other parties. The contract pricing suggests that Together (32¢) is considered the most likely third-place finisher, while several parties including Otzma Yehudit, Likud, Shas, and United Torah Judaism are all priced at low single-digit cents, indicating minimal differentiation among them in market expectations. The final outcome depends on voter turnout, coalition dynamics, and shifts in public opinion between now and election day. The election itself will resolve all third-place markets simultaneously, providing definitive seat counts by party. Key factors include recent polling trends for each major party, historical volatility in Israeli electoral results, and whether current coalition partners remain unified or splinter before voting occurs.

• ›Otzma Yehudit's current polling position relative to other right-wing and religious parties that compete for similar voter demographics
• ›Whether the current governing coalition remains intact through election day, as coalition breakdown could shift vote distribution across multiple parties
• ›Historical precedent showing Israeli elections often produce different seat distributions than pre-election polling suggests
• ›Shas and United Torah Judaism's performance as religious/haredi parties, since vote-splitting among these blocs directly affects Otzma Yehudit's chances of finishing third
• ›Election date timing and any major political events or scandals between August 2026 and voting day that could reshape voter preferences

What moved the line

• Sep 17Together↓9pp59→50¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17The Democrats↓6pp16→10¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19The Democrats↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18The Democrats↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds