Where will Mohamed Salah go next
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$119
9 contracts
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Where will Mohamed Salah go next
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any MLS Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-MLS
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any English Premier League Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-EPL
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any Turkish Super Lig Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-SLIG
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any Serie A Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-SERIEA
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any Saudi Pro League Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-SAUDI
Cluster 2
Where will David Alaba go next
Where will David Alaba go next?: Any MLS Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02DALABA-MLS
Where will David Alaba go next?: Any English Premier League Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02DALABA-EPL
Where will David Alaba go next?: Any Bundesliga Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02DALABA-BUND
Where will David Alaba go next?: Any Serie A Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02DALABA-SERIEA
Analysis
The 47% probability indicates that markets assess a Saudi Arabian move as the most likely next destination for Mohamed Salah, though far from certain. This leader position reflects several dynamics: Saudi clubs' documented interest in aging star players, Salah's contract status at Liverpool, and the financial capacity of Saudi Pro League teams. The probability could shift significantly based on statements from Salah, Liverpool management, or competing clubs. Key resolution catalysts include the end of the current Premier League season, any formal transfer announcements, or summer transfer window activity in late June through August 2026. Market sentiment here balances Salah's proven elite status against the historical pattern of top European players delaying moves to Saudi Arabia until their career decline.
- ›Saudi Pro League clubs have demonstrated willingness to offer substantial contracts to aging world-class players, creating financial pull that competes with traditional European clubs
- ›Salah's Liverpool contract terms, expiration date, and club's willingness to retain or sell him are direct determinants of his available options
- ›Competing destinations represented by the 15% runner-up and smaller positions indicate material uncertainty about whether other European leagues, Turkish clubs, or Middle Eastern alternatives emerge as more attractive
- ›Salah's age (34 in 2026) and recent performance trajectory directly affect both his market value and which clubs view him as a priority acquisition target
- ›The timing of Liverpool's strategic decisions during the summer 2026 transfer window will likely crystallize or shift current market expectations significantly
What moved the line
- Jun 23Any Saudi Pro League Club↓7pp60→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Any MLS Club↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Any MLS Club↓4pp18→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Any Turkish Super Lig Club↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Any MLS Club↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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