Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of Aleksandra Owca's chances of winning Kraków's 2026 special mayoral election. At 21%, Owca is currently positioned as the third-most-likely candidate behind frontrunner Łukasz Gibała (56%) and Monika Piątkowska (20%). Her relatively low probability reflects limited market volume on her specific contract—only $0 in 24-hour trading activity—which suggests either low trader interest or strong consensus that other candidates are more viable. The main factors influencing this level are the perceived strength of competing candidates, particularly Gibała's substantial lead, and Owca's current public profile and electoral support within Kraków. The election date itself will serve as the critical catalyst, resolving all remaining uncertainty about which candidate ultimately prevails and determining whether Owca gains ground from current expectations.

• ›Łukasz Gibała holds a 56% market probability, indicating dominant position and likely splitting anti-incumbent or reform-minded votes among the other three candidates
• ›Market volume on Owca's contract is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting either low trader conviction or possible information gaps about her candidacy
• ›Owca's 21% probability falls between Piątkowska (20%) and Gibała (56%), positioning her as a secondary alternative in the three-candidate race
• ›No recent polling or campaign activity data is reflected in the contract prices, creating potential for significant repricing if new campaign developments emerge
• ›The election date and official candidate registration deadlines will be the primary events that either confirm or challenge current market expectations

What moved the line

• Sep 18Monika Piątkowska↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Łukasz Gibała↓6pp70→64¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Monika Piątkowska↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Łukasz Gibała↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds