Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%
Leader sits at 47% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Karen Bass, ≥2%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Karen Bass, ≥4%
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
458 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 2%?: Karen Bass, ≥2%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26KBAS-KBAS-P51
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 10%?: Nithya Raman, ≥10%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26NRAM-NRAM-P55
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 8%?: Nithya Raman, ≥8%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26NRAM-NRAM-P54
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 6%?: Nithya Raman, ≥6%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26NRAM-NRAM-P53
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%?: Nithya Raman, ≥4%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26NRAM-NRAM-P52
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 2%?: Nithya Raman, ≥2%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26NRAM-NRAM-P51
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 10%?: Karen Bass, ≥10%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26KBAS-KBAS-P55
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 8%?: Karen Bass, ≥8%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26KBAS-KBAS-P54
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 6%?: Karen Bass, ≥6%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26KBAS-KBAS-P53
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%?: Karen Bass, ≥4%
KXLAMOV-KXMAYORLA26KBAS-KBAS-P52
Analysis
This market reflects whether Karen Bass will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin exceeding 4 percentage points. At 53%, traders view this outcome as slightly more likely than not, but substantial uncertainty remains. Bass's viability as the likely frontrunner is evident in her 53-cent contract (winning by 2%+), yet the tighter 4-point threshold shows traders are pricing in meaningful competition that could narrow her advantage. The outcome depends on her incumbent strength, challenger consolidation—particularly between Nithya Raman and other candidates—and voter turnout patterns. The 2026 election itself serves as the resolution event; no interim primary or polling threshold triggers a change before then. Kalshi trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited liquidity and the potential for sentiment shifts as the election approaches and candidates' campaigns develop.
- ›Karen Bass's incumbent advantage and approval rating as sitting mayor versus any primary or general election headwinds
- ›Whether challenger support fragments among multiple candidates or consolidates behind one opponent, materially affecting Bass's final margin
- ›Historical Los Angeles mayoral election margins and turnout demographics to establish whether 4-point victories are typical or exceptional for sitting mayors
- ›The timing and results of any polls or endorsements released before election day that shift voter perception of Bass's strength
- ›Public financing levels and campaign spending disparity between Bass and her strongest challenger, which influences campaign reach and mobilization
What moved the line
- Jul 28Nithya Raman, ≥10%↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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