Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects whether Karen Bass will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin exceeding 4 percentage points. At 53%, traders view this outcome as slightly more likely than not, but substantial uncertainty remains. Bass's viability as the likely frontrunner is evident in her 53-cent contract (winning by 2%+), yet the tighter 4-point threshold shows traders are pricing in meaningful competition that could narrow her advantage. The outcome depends on her incumbent strength, challenger consolidation—particularly between Nithya Raman and other candidates—and voter turnout patterns. The 2026 election itself serves as the resolution event; no interim primary or polling threshold triggers a change before then. Kalshi trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited liquidity and the potential for sentiment shifts as the election approaches and candidates' campaigns develop.

• ›Karen Bass's incumbent advantage and approval rating as sitting mayor versus any primary or general election headwinds
• ›Whether challenger support fragments among multiple candidates or consolidates behind one opponent, materially affecting Bass's final margin
• ›Historical Los Angeles mayoral election margins and turnout demographics to establish whether 4-point victories are typical or exceptional for sitting mayors
• ›The timing and results of any polls or endorsements released before election day that shift voter perception of Bass's strength
• ›Public financing levels and campaign spending disparity between Bass and her strongest challenger, which influences campaign reach and mobilization

What moved the line

• Sep 23Nithya Raman, ≥4%↑26pp7→33¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Karen Bass, ≥2%↑24pp28→52¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 23Nithya Raman, ≥10%↑21pp5→26¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Nithya Raman, ≥4%↓21pp26→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 23Nithya Raman, ≥2%↑20pp16→36¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag electionlast 13% · 4d
• Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 5d
• Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 5d
• Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 6d
• Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 6d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds