SimpleFunctions
Sports3 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Nov 8, 2026 · 183d

Will Alyssa Thomas lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

27%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

27%

3 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$94

3 contracts

Closes

Nov 8, 2026

183 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 38% on 2026-05-07
Aggregate of 3 contracts · 1d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$93

Cluster 2

Will Alyssa Thomas lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$1

Cluster 3

Will Paige Bueckers lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This contract reflects a 27% probability that Alyssa Thomas will lead the WNBA in assists per game during the 2026 regular season. Thomas is a strong playmaker and primary ball-handler for her team, but faces direct competition from other elite distributors, particularly Caitlin Clark (47% probability) and Paige Bueckers (5% probability). Thomas's likelihood depends on whether she maintains her typical assist volume, stays healthy through a full season, and whether her teammates' offensive usage patterns favor high-volume passing opportunities. The market clearly favors Clark as the leader, suggesting either that she's expected to increase her playmaking role in 2026 or that Thomas's past seasons set lower historical benchmarks. The regular season runs October 2025 through September 2026, with the final stat lines determining the outcome definitively.

  • Alyssa Thomas's historical assists-per-game average and whether 2026 represents growth, decline, or stability from that baseline
  • Whether Thomas's team's offensive system and teammate composition create higher or lower assist opportunities than competitors
  • Caitlin Clark's projected role and usage rate, as the 47% contract indicates she is the aggregate favorite to lead the league
  • Injury risk over a full 40-game season, which would eliminate Thomas from contention if she misses significant games
  • Team performance and pace of play, as winning teams and faster-paced offenses typically generate more assist opportunities

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

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