Will A'ja Wilson lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
133 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will Kelsey” vs “Will A'ja Wilson lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kelsey
Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Mitchell
KXLEADERWNBAPTS-26-KMITCHELL0
Will Kelsey Plum lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Plum
KXLEADERWNBAPTS-26-KPLUM10
Cluster 2
Will A'ja Wilson lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Napheesa Collier lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Paige Bueckers lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Allisha Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Breanna Stewart lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Jackie Young lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Sonia Citron lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Marina Mabrey lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Gabby Williams lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This question asks whether A'ja Wilson will finish the 2026 WNBA regular season as the league leader in scoring average. The 22% probability reflects significant competition from other elite scorers, particularly Paige Bueckers (7¢) and Kelsey Plum (28¢). Wilson's scoring rate depends on her offensive role, injury status, and team strategy for the Las Vegas Aces. The probability would shift based on early-season performance trends and whether high-volume scorers like Bueckers or Plum maintain scoring pace. The 2026 WNBA regular season will conclude in September 2026, at which point final scoring statistics will determine the outcome. Market pricing suggests the field of potential leaders is fragmented, indicating uncertainty about which player will lead.
- ›A'ja Wilson's average points per game in early 2026 season games relative to competing scorers like Paige Bueckers and Kelsey Plum
- ›Las Vegas Aces' offensive system and how many possessions Wilson receives relative to previous seasons
- ›Injury status of Wilson and other leading scorers throughout the regular season
- ›Volume of three-point attempts by Wilson versus traditional post-scoring pattern, affecting PPG totals
- ›Comparative scoring rates of Paige Bueckers in her first full WNBA season versus established veterans
What moved the line
- Jun 25Caitlin Clark↑9pp1→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Caitlin Clark↓8pp9→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Kelsey Plum↓3pp24→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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