Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$663
5 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
406 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Carlos Bruce
KXLIMAMAYOR-26OCT04-CBRU
Cluster 2
Will Francis Allison win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Will Francis Allison win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Francis Allison
KXLIMAMAYOR-26OCT04-FALL
Cluster 3
Will Susel Paredes win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Will Susel Paredes win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Susel Paredes
KXLIMAMAYOR-26OCT04-SPAR
Cluster 4
Will Daniel Urresti win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Will Daniel Urresti win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Daniel Urresti
KXLIMAMAYOR-26OCT04-DURR
Cluster 5
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Rafael López Aliaga
KXLIMAMAYOR-26OCT04-RALI
Analysis
This represents market participants' assessment that Carlos Bruce has a 10% chance of winning the Lima mayoral election in 2026. The prediction reflects a crowded field where multiple candidates hold similar probabilities: Francis Allison and Carlos Bruce are each priced at 14 cents, Daniel Urresti at 13 cents, while Yehude Simon and Alberto Tejada trade lower at 6 cents. Bruce's position suggests moderate viability but faces significant competition. The probability could shift based on candidate campaign performance, endorsements, polling data, and Peru's shifting political dynamics. The election itself will resolve this market by determining the actual winner among the declared candidates. Current low trading volumes across all contracts indicate limited recent market activity around this race.
- ›Five candidates cluster between 6-14 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty and no clear frontrunner in market pricing
- ›Bruce is priced identically (14 cents) to Francis Allison and only 1 cent above Daniel Urresti, suggesting marginal differentiation among top contenders
- ›Yehude Simon, a former prime minister, trades at only 6 cents despite prior political experience, indicating either market skepticism about his candidacy or preference for other candidates
- ›Trading volume is minimal or zero across all Lima mayoral contracts, suggesting limited information flow and analyst engagement with this specific race
- ›The 2026 Lima election occurs in Peru's volatile political environment where recent mayoral races have produced variable outcomes and shifting voter preferences
What moved the line
- Aug 21Rafael López Aliaga↑11pp11→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Carlos Bruce↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Rafael López Aliaga↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Carlos Bruce↑4pp29→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Francis Allison↓4pp21→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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