Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.5%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Above 2%
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
May 2, 2027
292 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above
Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 2%
KXLOBA-27FEBSSSG-2.0
Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 3% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 3%
KXLOBA-27FEBSSSG-3.0
Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 3.5% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXLOBA-27FEBSSSG-3.5
Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 1.5% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 1.5%
KXLOBA-27FEBSSSG-1.5
Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2.5% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXLOBA-27FEBSSSG-2.5
Analysis
This reflects traders' assessment that Loblaw Companies Limited's food retail division will achieve same-store sales growth exceeding 2% during 2026. The 80-cent contract price indicates roughly 80% confidence in this outcome. The current market structure shows strong conviction around 1.5% growth being exceeded (96¢), but declining confidence at higher thresholds—only 15¢ for above 3%, suggesting material uncertainty about strong acceleration. Loblaw's final 2026 same-store sales results, typically reported in early 2027, will resolve this. Key drivers include Canadian consumer spending patterns, competitive pricing pressure in grocery retail, and inflation's effect on comparable-period calculations. The gap between the 1.5% and 2% contract prices suggests the marginal 0.5% range is where meaningful debate occurs.
- ›Loblaw's comparable-store sales growth rate in H1 2026 relative to the prior-year period, as this establishes the trajectory heading into year-end
- ›Canadian grocery market competition and any market share shifts between Loblaw, Metro, and other retailers during 2026
- ›Consumer spending and inflation trends through 2026, which affect both basket growth and year-over-year price comparisons
- ›Loblaw's promotional activity and pricing strategy relative to competitors, which influences transaction volumes and per-unit growth
- ›Official 2026 full-year same-store sales reporting (expected Q1 2027), which will definitively resolve the outcome
What moved the line
- Jul 14Above 2%↑13pp67→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 14Above 3.5%↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 14Above 2.5%↑4pp41→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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