Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026
Leader sits at 88% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 0
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Exactly 1
Spread
81pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
130 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 0
KXLOSEREELECTIONDSEN-2026-0
Will exactly 2 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 2
KXLOSEREELECTIONDSEN-2026-2
Will exactly 1 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 1
KXLOSEREELECTIONDSEN-2026-1
Analysis
This probability measures whether zero incumbent Senate Democrats will lose general elections in 2026. At 72%, the market implies it is significantly more likely that at least one Democrat will be defeated than that all will survive. The current probability reflects that Democrats hold 51 seats and face a favorable electoral map in 2026, with relatively few competitive races where incumbents are particularly vulnerable. The main downside risks are unexpected recruitment of strong Republican challengers in key states, deterioration of Democratic candidate quality, or major shifts in national political conditions that tighten races. The resolution will depend on general election results in November 2026, making overall Republican performance and state-level dynamics the primary drivers of movement between now and then.
- ›The 2026 Senate map favors Democrats with fewer seats in play and limited high-quality Republican pickup opportunities
- ›Current polling and historical incumbency advantage suggest most Democratic incumbents would survive even in a moderately unfavorable environment
- ›Republican primary outcomes and final candidate selection (note: 29-40% pricing on exact Republican primary loss counts) will influence competitive intensity in general elections
- ›Economic conditions and presidential approval in fall 2026 will shape overall electoral environment and potentially expose previously safe Democrats
- ›Early candidate recruitment and fundraising patterns through summer 2026 will signal which races may become genuinely competitive
What moved the line
- Aug 17Exactly 0↑16pp72→88¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Exactly 1↓16pp21→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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The 2026 midterm election market is vibrant, with Democrats heavily favored to retake the House (84¢) but the Senate control is a coin flip (47¢ D vs 52¢ R). Key state-level races like Michigan Senate (D 62¢) and Georgia Senate (D 92¢) show Democratic strength. This divergence between House and Senate expectations creates interesting spread-trading opportunities between the two chambers.
2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge — Republicans at 52¢
The 2026 Senate control contract (CONTROLS-2026) is the most liquid election market across all platforms, with GOP control priced at 52¢ vs. Democrats at 48¢. Key battleground states like Ohio (51¢ D), Michigan (57¢ D), and Texas (50¢ R) are aligning with the national narrative of a highly competitive map.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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