Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $213 average passenger fare in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 88% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 56 million
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above $216
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$15
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 21, 2026
105 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 58 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 58 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-58000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 59 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 59 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-59000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $231 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $231
KXLUV-26JULFARE-231
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $225 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $225
KXLUV-26JULFARE-225
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $222 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $222
KXLUV-26JULFARE-222
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $219 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $219
KXLUV-26JULFARE-219
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $216 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $216
KXLUV-26JULFARE-216
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 62 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 62 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-62000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 61 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 61 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-61000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 60 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 60 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-60000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 57 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 57 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-57000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 56 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 56 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-56000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $228 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $228
KXLUV-26JULFARE-228
What moved the line
- May 6Above $219↑5pp76→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above $231↑5pp45→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above $225↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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