Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $213 average passenger fare in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 56 million
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above $216
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$14
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 21, 2026
55 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Southwest Airlines Company report above
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 56 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 56 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-56000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 58 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 58 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-58000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report above 60.5 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 60.5 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-60500000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 60 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 60 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-60000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report above 59.5 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 59.5 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-59500000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 59 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 59 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-59000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 57 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 57 million
KXLUV-26JULSEATS-57000000
Will Southwest Airlines Company report above $240 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $240
KXLUV-26JULFARE-240
Will Southwest Airlines Company report above $237 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $237
KXLUV-26JULFARE-237
Will Southwest Airlines Company report above $234 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $234
KXLUV-26JULFARE-234
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $231 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $231
KXLUV-26JULFARE-231
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $228 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $228
KXLUV-26JULFARE-228
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $225 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $225
KXLUV-26JULFARE-225
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $222 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $222
KXLUV-26JULFARE-222
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $219 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $219
KXLUV-26JULFARE-219
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $216 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $216
KXLUV-26JULFARE-216
Analysis
This market asks whether Southwest Airlines will report average passenger fares above $213 in Q1 2026, and traders currently assess this as 92% likely. The high probability reflects confidence that Southwest's fares will remain elevated, driven by sustained travel demand and industry pricing power observed through early 2026. Downward pressure would come from capacity additions, competitive fare wars, or unexpected demand weakness. Q1 2026 results will be formally disclosed in late April or early May 2026, resolving the outcome. The related Q2 fare contracts trading at 88-90% (for $216-$219 thresholds) suggest expectations for moderately higher fares in the subsequent quarter, indicating a relatively stable pricing environment rather than sharp increases or declines.
- ›Southwest's Q1 2026 actual average fare relative to historical baseline and competitor pricing trends
- ›Aggregate industry capacity growth and load factors during Q1 2026 travel season
- ›Macroeconomic indicators affecting leisure and business travel demand through March 2026
- ›Fuel costs and cost inflation pressures on airline operations in early 2026
- ›Southwest's official earnings announcement date and reported fare metrics for Q1 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 25Above $225↓4pp78→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 57 million↑4pp87→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above $228↓3pp65→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 59 million↑3pp53→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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