Big Walk Metacritic score
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 61% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
12 contracts
Closes
Aug 13, 2026
20 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score” vs “Marvel Tokon: Fighting Souls Metacritic score”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 40
KXMC-BEA-40
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 90
KXMC-BEA-90
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 85
KXMC-BEA-85
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 80
KXMC-BEA-80
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 75
KXMC-BEA-75
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 70
KXMC-BEA-70
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 65
KXMC-BEA-65
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 60
KXMC-BEA-60
Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 50
KXMC-BEA-50
Cluster 2
Marvel Tokon: Fighting Souls Metacritic score
Cluster 3
Halo: Campaign Evolved Metacritic score
Halo: Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 85
KXMC-HAL-85
Analysis
The 66% probability reflects market consensus that Big Walk will achieve a Metacritic score above 40 when it releases. Metacritic scores aggregate professional game reviews on a 0-100 scale and serve as a key quality benchmark in the gaming industry. The score will be determined upon release and influenced by the game's technical performance, gameplay mechanics, narrative quality, and how well it meets critic expectations relative to its genre. The main catalyst for resolving this prediction is the game's actual release date, at which point Metacritic will publish aggregated critic reviews. Downward pressure on the probability could come from negative pre-release coverage or critic previews, while upward movement could result from strong early reviews or positive media reception leading up to launch.
- ›The game's Metacritic score depends entirely on aggregated professional critic reviews at launch; no review embargo or early critic access data is currently public
- ›Similar games in the same genre or from the same developer provide baseline expectations for what Metacritic scores are achievable
- ›Big Walk's development status, announced feature set, and any public gameplay footage or previews influence critic sentiment before scoring
- ›The threshold of 40 represents a modest quality bar; most commercially released games score above this level, suggesting market confidence in basic competence
- ›Contract volume at $50 24-hour volume is relatively thin, indicating limited liquidity and potential wider bid-ask spreads that could reflect higher uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jul 23Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 85↓46pp62→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 85↑13pp36→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 85↑13pp44→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 24Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 85↓9pp16→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Above 75↑8pp79→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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