Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
19 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
537 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ashley Graham be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Ashley Graham be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Ashley Graham
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-ASH
Cluster 2
Will Brooks Nader be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Brooks Nader be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Brooks Nader
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-BRO
Cluster 3
Will Camille Kostek be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Camille Kostek be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Camille Kostek
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-CAM
Cluster 4
Will Chrissy Teigen be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Chrissy Teigen be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Chrissy Teigen
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-CHR
Cluster 5
Will Ciara be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Ciara be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Ciara
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-CIA
Cluster 6
Will Ella Halikas be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Ella Halikas be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Ella Halikas
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-ELL
Cluster 7
Will Hailey Van Lith be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Hailey Van Lith be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Hailey Van Lith
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-HAI
Cluster 8
Will Haley Kalil be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Haley Kalil be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Haley Kalil
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-HAL
Cluster 9
Will Hunter McGrady be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Hunter McGrady be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Hunter McGrady
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-HUN
Cluster 10
Will Irina Shayk be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Irina Shayk be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Irina Shayk
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-IRI
Cluster 11
Will Jasmine Sanders be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Jasmine Sanders be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Jasmine Sanders
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-JAS
Cluster 12
Will Jordan Chiles be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Jordan Chiles be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Jordan Chiles
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-JOR
Cluster 13
Will Kate Upton be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Kate Upton be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Kate Upton
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-KAT
Cluster 14
Will Kim Petras be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Kim Petras be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Kim Petras
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-KIM
Cluster 15
Will Lauren Chan be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Lauren Chan be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Lauren Chan
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-LAU
Cluster 16
Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Martha Stewart
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-MAR
Cluster 17
Will Nina Agdal be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Nina Agdal be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Nina Agdal
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-NIN
Cluster 18
Will Olivia Dunne be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Olivia Dunne be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Olivia Dunne
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-OLI
Cluster 19
Will Yumi Nu be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
Will Yumi Nu be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?: Yumi Nu
KXMEDIACOVERSI-27-YUM
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Martha Stewart will be selected as the cover model for Sports Illustrated's 2027 Swimsuit Issue. The 26% probability reflects active betting interest on Kalshi, where Stewart competes against younger models like Ella Halikas (42¢), Haley Kalil (19¢), and others. The current level likely reflects Stewart's recent high-profile career resurgence, including her Netflix series and renewed cultural relevance, balanced against traditional industry conventions that historically favor younger models for the swimsuit issue. The probability will shift based on any official announcements from Sports Illustrated regarding their 2027 cover selection process or confirmed cover model. The main resolution point occurs when SI officially announces their 2027 Swimsuit Issue cover, expected sometime in late 2026 or early 2027 before the physical issue release.
- ›Martha Stewart is 84 years old as of 2026, making her significantly older than typical SI Swimsuit cover models, which historically skews toward models in their 20s-30s
- ›Stewart's recent media prominence through Netflix collaborations and brand partnerships may increase her cultural visibility and appeal to SI's editorial team
- ›SI has occasionally featured non-traditional cover models and personalities, creating precedent but remaining statistically rare in the publication's history
- ›Competing models like Ella Halikas show higher betting probability (42¢), suggesting market participants view younger alternatives as more likely choices
- ›No confirmed announcement from SI regarding their 2027 cover selection criteria or timeline has been made public as of May 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 7Ciara↓9pp16→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Ciara↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Ella Halikas↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Hailey Van Lith↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Hailey Van Lith↓5pp16→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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