SimpleFunctions
19 source contracts·Kalshi 19·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2027 · 537d

Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

19 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

537 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 15% (27 days, 27 points)Aggregate: 15% on 2026-07-10
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 27d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Ashley Graham be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will Brooks Nader be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Camille Kostek be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Chrissy Teigen be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Ciara be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Ella Halikas be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Hailey Van Lith be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Haley Kalil be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Hunter McGrady be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Irina Shayk be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Jasmine Sanders be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Jordan Chiles be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Kate Upton be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Kim Petras be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Lauren Chan be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Nina Agdal be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Olivia Dunne be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Yumi Nu be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Martha Stewart will be selected as the cover model for Sports Illustrated's 2027 Swimsuit Issue. The 26% probability reflects active betting interest on Kalshi, where Stewart competes against younger models like Ella Halikas (42¢), Haley Kalil (19¢), and others. The current level likely reflects Stewart's recent high-profile career resurgence, including her Netflix series and renewed cultural relevance, balanced against traditional industry conventions that historically favor younger models for the swimsuit issue. The probability will shift based on any official announcements from Sports Illustrated regarding their 2027 cover selection process or confirmed cover model. The main resolution point occurs when SI officially announces their 2027 Swimsuit Issue cover, expected sometime in late 2026 or early 2027 before the physical issue release.

  • Martha Stewart is 84 years old as of 2026, making her significantly older than typical SI Swimsuit cover models, which historically skews toward models in their 20s-30s
  • Stewart's recent media prominence through Netflix collaborations and brand partnerships may increase her cultural visibility and appeal to SI's editorial team
  • SI has occasionally featured non-traditional cover models and personalities, creating precedent but remaining statistically rare in the publication's history
  • Competing models like Ella Halikas show higher betting probability (42¢), suggesting market participants view younger alternatives as more likely choices
  • No confirmed announcement from SI regarding their 2027 cover selection criteria or timeline has been made public as of May 2026

What moved the line

  • Jul 7Ciara9pp167¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 5Ciara5pp1116¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 5Ella Halikas5pp1318¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 5Hailey Van Lith5pp1116¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 7Hailey Van Lith5pp1611¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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