SimpleFunctions
19 source contracts·Kalshi 19·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2027 · 467d

Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

7%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

7%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$18

19 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

467 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 5% (19 days, 19 points)Aggregate: 5% on 2026-09-19
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 19d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Camille Kostek be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$10

Cluster 2

Will Haley Kalil be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$8

Cluster 3

Will Brooks Nader be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Olivia Dunne be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Jordan Chiles be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Ciara be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Yumi Nu be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Nina Agdal be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Kate Upton be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Irina Shayk be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Ashley Graham be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Hunter McGrady be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Ella Halikas be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Chrissy Teigen be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Kim Petras be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Lauren Chan be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Hailey Van Lith be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Jasmine Sanders be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

1 contract$0

Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Martha Stewart will be chosen as the cover model for Sports Illustrated's 2027 Swimsuit Issue. At 8%, the prediction reflects Stewart's age (85 in 2027) and traditional swimsuit modeling demographics, where cover selections typically feature younger models in their 20s-40s. SI Swimsuit has occasionally featured older models and celebrities in recent years, which could theoretically expand Stewart's chances, but the historical pattern and competitive field of other candidates (with Haley Kalil at 14% being the top individual contract) suggests the market views this as an unlikely outcome. The resolution depends on SI's editorial decisions, which typically occur in late 2026 or early 2027 when cover announcements are made.

  • Martha Stewart's age (85) compared to historical SI Swimsuit cover model age ranges, which have predominantly featured models under 60
  • SI Swimsuit's stated editorial direction and recent cover choices—whether they've emphasized diversity in age representation or continued traditional demographic targeting
  • Competition from other named candidates, particularly Haley Kalil (14%) and Camille Kostek (13%), plus unnamed potential models
  • Martha Stewart's current public profile and media visibility relative to professional swimsuit models and celebrities in the fashion/entertainment space
  • The official cover announcement timing and any SI Swimsuit previews or statements made in Q4 2026 that signal their selection criteria

What moved the line

  • Sep 19Haley Kalil9pp145¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Ella Halikas9pp615¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Ella Halikas6pp126¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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