Will Maine Governor winner be Republican party and Maine Senate winner be Democratic party
Leader sits at 60% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrats sweep
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Democratic Governor, Republi
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$201
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
451 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Maine Governor winner
Will Maine Governor winner be Democratic party and Maine Senate winner be Republican party?: Democratic Governor, Republican Senator
KXMESENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMREP
Will Maine Governor winner be Republican party and Maine Senate winner be Republican party?: Republicans sweep
KXMESENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPREP
Will Maine Governor winner be Democratic party and Maine Senate winner be Democratic party?: Democrats sweep
KXMESENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Maine voters will elect a Republican governor while simultaneously choosing a Democratic state senator in the 2026 election cycle. Currently priced at 4 cents, this mixed-outcome scenario is the least likely of the four possible combinations, suggesting markets view it as relatively improbable compared to a Democratic sweep (51%) or a Democratic governor paired with a Republican senator (32%). The pricing reflects expectations about Maine's political leanings, candidate strength, and regional voting patterns. This outcome would require divergent voting behavior across statewide offices, which historically occurs less frequently than straight-ticket outcomes. Key drivers include candidate quality, campaign momentum, and whether national partisan trends align with or diverge from state-level preferences. The resolution will occur following Maine's November 2026 general election when both offices are decided simultaneously.
- ›Maine has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections (2000-2020), suggesting structural Democratic advantage in statewide races
- ›Split outcomes require voters to support different parties for governor versus senate, a behavior pattern less common than straight-ticket voting in most U.S. states
- ›Candidate recruitment and name recognition in each race will significantly influence whether cross-party voting occurs or consolidates around party lines
- ›Campaign spending and advertising intensity between now and November 2026 may shift voter preferences across the two separate contests
- ›Approval ratings of the incumbent governor and senator (if applicable) and broader national political environment could accelerate or decelerate movement toward this mixed outcome
What moved the line
- Aug 8Democratic Governor, Republican Senator↓4pp34→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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