Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$24
5 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
466 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Cleitinho Azevedo
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-CAZE
Cluster 2
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Alexandre Kalil
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-AKAL
Cluster 3
Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Gabriel Azevedo
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-GAZE
Cluster 4
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Mateus Simões
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-MSIM
Cluster 5
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Rodrigo Pacheco
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-RPAC
Analysis
This probability represents the current market assessment that Alexandre Kalil will win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election scheduled for later in 2026. At 21%, the market is pricing Kalil as an underdog, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely to prevail. The current assessment reflects Kalil's political standing in the state, including his incumbency status and recent polling data relative to likely opponents. The election itself will be the decisive event, though intermediate factors like campaign developments, polling shifts, and endorsements will likely move this probability throughout the pre-election period. Market participants are trading on expectations about voter preferences in this major Brazilian state contest.
- ›Kalil's approval ratings and job performance as governor will directly influence voter support levels
- ›Composition and strength of the opposing candidate field, including whether a consensus opposition candidate emerges
- ›Recent polling data showing Kalil's relative position versus other viable candidates in head-to-head matchups
- ›Campaign spending and organizational capacity compared to main competitors in the lead-up to election day
- ›Broader political trends in Minas Gerais, including regional economic conditions and voting patterns from recent elections
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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