Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the current market assessment that Alexandre Kalil will win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election scheduled for later in 2026. At 21%, the market is pricing Kalil as an underdog, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely to prevail. The current assessment reflects Kalil's political standing in the state, including his incumbency status and recent polling data relative to likely opponents. The election itself will be the decisive event, though intermediate factors like campaign developments, polling shifts, and endorsements will likely move this probability throughout the pre-election period. Market participants are trading on expectations about voter preferences in this major Brazilian state contest.

• ›Kalil's approval ratings and job performance as governor will directly influence voter support levels
• ›Composition and strength of the opposing candidate field, including whether a consensus opposition candidate emerges
• ›Recent polling data showing Kalil's relative position versus other viable candidates in head-to-head matchups
• ›Campaign spending and organizational capacity compared to main competitors in the lead-up to election day
• ›Broader political trends in Minas Gerais, including regional economic conditions and voting patterns from recent elections

What moved the line

• May 7Gabriel Azevedo↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
• Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
• What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds