SimpleFunctions
8 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jun 5, 2026 · 28d

Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for April

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

7%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

7%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$599

8 contracts

Closes

Jun 5, 2026

28 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 11% on 2026-05-06
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 1d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Max Fried be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$477

Cluster 2

Will Nathan Eovaldi be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$119

Cluster 3

Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$3

Cluster 4

Will Trevor Rogers be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Paul Skenes be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Robbie Ray be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Shohei Ohtani be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Mason Miller be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates an 11% chance that José Soriano will be named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April 2026. The probability reflects his performance relative to other AL pitchers during that specific month, with the award typically going to the pitcher with the most wins, lowest ERA, or strongest overall statistics among qualified starters. The current low probability suggests either that Soriano underperformed in April or that other pitchers posted more dominant numbers. The resolution will occur when MLB officially announces the award winner, typically in early May. Factors affecting the probability include Soriano's win-loss record, ERA, and innings pitched throughout April compared to competitors, as well as whether he remained healthy and received regular starts. Any significant injuries to top AL competitors could shift probability upward, while sustained excellence from other pitchers would likely keep it low.

  • Soriano's April 2026 ERA and win-loss record relative to other AL starters
  • Whether Soriano received regular starting assignments and innings pitched in April
  • Performance of competing AL pitchers during the same month, particularly those on contending teams
  • Historical voting patterns of baseball media selecting Pitcher of the Month awards
  • Any injuries to other AL pitchers that could reduce competition for the award

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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