Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
12 contracts
Closes
Jul 4, 2026
6 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Drew Rasmussen be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Cluster 2
Will Jacob Misiorowski be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June
Cluster 3
Will Tarik Skubal be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Will Tarik Skubal be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Tarik Skubal
KXMLBPITCHEROTM-26JUNAL-TSKUBAL29
Cluster 4
Will Jacob deGrom be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Cluster 5
Will Sonny Gray be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Will Sonny Gray be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Sonny Gray
KXMLBPITCHEROTM-26JUNAL-SGRAY54
Cluster 6
Will Bryan Woo be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Will Bryan Woo be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Bryan Woo
KXMLBPITCHEROTM-26JUNAL-BWOO22
Cluster 7
Will Erik Sabrowski be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Cluster 8
Will Aroldis Chapman be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Cluster 9
Will David Bednar be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June
Will David Bednar be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: David Bednar
KXMLBPITCHEROTM-26JUNAL-DBEDNAR53
Cluster 10
Will Shohei Ohtani be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June
Cluster 11
Will Aaron Ashby be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June
Will Aaron Ashby be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Aaron Ashby
KXMLBPITCHEROTM-26JUNNL-AASHBY26
Cluster 12
Will Cristopher Sanchez be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June
Analysis
This market estimates an 11% chance that José Soriano will be named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April 2026. The probability reflects his performance relative to other AL pitchers during that specific month, with the award typically going to the pitcher with the most wins, lowest ERA, or strongest overall statistics among qualified starters. The current low probability suggests either that Soriano underperformed in April or that other pitchers posted more dominant numbers. The resolution will occur when MLB officially announces the award winner, typically in early May. Factors affecting the probability include Soriano's win-loss record, ERA, and innings pitched throughout April compared to competitors, as well as whether he remained healthy and received regular starts. Any significant injuries to top AL competitors could shift probability upward, while sustained excellence from other pitchers would likely keep it low.
- ›Soriano's April 2026 ERA and win-loss record relative to other AL starters
- ›Whether Soriano received regular starting assignments and innings pitched in April
- ›Performance of competing AL pitchers during the same month, particularly those on contending teams
- ›Historical voting patterns of baseball media selecting Pitcher of the Month awards
- ›Any injuries to other AL pitchers that could reduce competition for the award
What moved the line
- Jun 27Jacob Misiorowski↑27pp42→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Drew Rasmussen↓19pp30→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Jacob Misiorowski↑12pp32→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Jacob Misiorowski↓9pp51→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Drew Rasmussen↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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