Will any hitter record 50+ home runs and 50+ steals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$160
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 3, 2026
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will any pitcher record
Will any pitcher record a no hitter?: No Hitter
KXMLBSTAT-26NOHIT-AP
Will any pitcher record 20+ wins?: 20+ Wins
KXMLBSTAT-26W20-AP
Will any pitcher record a perfect game?: Perfect Game
KXMLBSTAT-26PG-AP
Will any pitcher record a 107+ MPH Pitch?: 107+ MPH Pitch
KXMLBSTAT-26P107-AP
Will any pitcher record a 106+ MPH Pitch?: 106+ MPH Pitch
KXMLBSTAT-26P106-AP
Cluster 2
Will any hitter record
Will any hitter record 2+ grand slams in any game?: 2+ Grand Slam
KXMLBSTAT-26GS2-AH
Will any hitter record a 500+ foot home run (per Statcast measurement)?: 500+ Foot Home Run
KXMLBSTAT-26HR500-AH
Will any hitter record 4+ home runs in a game?: 4+ Home runs
KXMLBSTAT-26HR4-AH
Will any hitter record 50+ home runs and 50+ steals?: 50+ Home runs and 50+ Steals
KXMLBSTAT-265050-AH
Analysis
This market asks whether any professional baseball hitter will achieve the rare feat of 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season. At 24% probability, it reflects skepticism about such a combination occurring soon. The current level reflects two offsetting considerations: baseball has seen occasional 50-home-run seasons and occasional 50-steal seasons, but almost never from the same player in the same year, as these skills typically indicate different player types and playing styles. Resolution depends on 2026-2027 MLB regular seasons, where any qualifying player would need to demonstrate both power-hitting consistency and base-running speed simultaneously—a combination that has been exceptionally rare in professional baseball history. The outcome will become clearer as the 2026 MLB season progresses and player statistics accumulate through September.
- ›No MLB player has ever recorded 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season; the closest recent approach was 40+ HR/40+ SB by only one player in history (José Canseco, 1988)
- ›A player attempting this feat must balance aggressive power-hitting and base-running approaches that typically conflict, as power hitters often strike out more and run less frequently
- ›The 2026-2027 MLB seasons will be the evaluation period; current spring training and early-season performance of high-speed, high-power players will narrow probabilities
- ›Rule changes, injury patterns, or unexpected player trades could significantly alter which players have realistic opportunities to pursue this milestone
- ›Historical precedent suggests this represents an extreme statistical outlier in baseball performance rather than a likely outcome
What moved the line
- Jul 9No Hitter↓10pp51→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8No Hitter↑6pp45→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Perfect Game↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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