Will any hitter record 50+ home runs and 50+ steals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$414
3 contracts
Closes
Dec 3, 2026
72 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will any pitcher record” vs “Will any hitter record a 500+ foot home run (per Statcast measurement)”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will any pitcher record
Cluster 2
Will any hitter record a 500+ foot home run (per Statcast measurement)
Will any hitter record a 500+ foot home run (per Statcast measurement)?: 500+ Foot Home Run
KXMLBSTAT-26HR500-AH
Analysis
This contract estimates a 12% chance that a Major League Baseball player will achieve the rare dual milestone of 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season. The rarity of combining power hitting with speed is the primary factor keeping the probability low; historically, only a handful of players have approached either threshold, and combining both is exceptionally difficult. The probability would shift based on early-season performance from elite speed-and-power players, as well as rule changes or training methods that could make such feats more attainable. The main uncertainty resolves at the end of the 2026 MLB regular season, when final statistical records are finalized and compared against these thresholds.
- ›No player has recorded 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in the same MLB season in the modern era (since 1900)
- ›The highest home run total by a 50-steal player is 56 home runs (Willie Mays, 1956), suggesting the combination is at the extreme edge of human performance
- ›Current MLB leaders in stolen bases typically average 15-30 home runs, while home run leaders rarely exceed 10 stolen bases
- ›Rule changes or strategic shifts favoring stolen base attempts could slightly increase likelihood, though home run output would need to remain elite
- ›The 2026 regular season has approximately 4.5 months remaining from the current date to observe which players are tracking toward both thresholds
What moved the line
- Sep 18No Hitter↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19500+ Foot Home Run↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17No Hitter↓4pp18→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17106+ MPH Pitch↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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