SimpleFunctions
4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 29, 2026 · 99d

Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

23%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

23%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$905

4 contracts

Closes

Oct 29, 2026

99 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 22% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 22% on 2026-07-22
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will San Francisco have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$522

Cluster 2

Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$248

Cluster 3

Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$104

Cluster 4

Will Los Angeles A have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$31

Analysis

This market estimates an 11% chance that the Kansas City Royals finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the worst record in baseball. The prediction reflects early-season performance and roster composition relative to other struggling teams. The Royals' probability sits above some peers like St. Louis (4%) and New York Mets (3%), but below Chicago White Sox (9%), suggesting Kansas City is viewed as moderately vulnerable to finishing last. The main drivers are the team's win-loss record as games accumulate through the season and injury status of key players. The probability will clarify significantly as May and June progress, with the final determination coming when all 162 games conclude in late September 2026. Teams with similar records and talent levels will see their probabilities fluctuate inversely as the season unfolds.

  • Kansas City's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other bottom-tier teams as of early May
  • Injury status and availability of the Royals' key position players and starting pitchers through the season
  • Trade deadline activity in late July, where struggling teams may sell off assets and further weaken rosters
  • Performance trajectory of competing teams like Chicago White Sox, St. Louis, and New York Mets who also have low probabilities of worst record
  • Remaining strength of schedule for Kansas City versus other non-competitive teams in their division and league

What moved the line

  • Jul 22Colorado10pp3949¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Kansas City5pp1611¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 19Los Angeles A5pp2833¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 15Los Angeles A4pp2925¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Los Angeles A4pp3430¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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