Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
39h ago
24h volume
$9K
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 29, 2026
48 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Colorado
KXMLBWORSTRECORD-26-COL
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles A have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will A's have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will A's have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: A's
KXMLBWORSTRECORD-26-ATH
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Kansas City will finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the worst record among all 30 teams. At 29%, the market views Kansas City as less likely than Colorado (51%) or the Los Angeles Athletics (33%) to have the league's worst record, suggesting traders expect other teams to struggle more significantly. The Royals' positioning reflects their recent roster construction and competitive standing relative to other struggling franchises. The final standings will be determined on October 4, 2026, when the regular season concludes. Until then, major factors include trade deadline acquisitions, injury developments among star players, and win-loss records across comparison teams in real time.
- ›Kansas City's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other bottom-dwellers as of September 10, 2026
- ›Roster composition and remaining schedule difficulty for Kansas City versus Colorado and Los Angeles Athletics through season end
- ›Recent trade activity or roster moves by Kansas City management versus competing teams with worst-record potential
- ›Injury status of key Royals players and impact on lineup quality for final month of play
- ›Historical performance trends: which franchise has shown the steepest decline and fewest paths to additional wins
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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