Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$905
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 29, 2026
99 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will San Francisco have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Colorado
KXMLBWORSTRECORD-26-COL
Cluster 4
Will Los Angeles A have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This market estimates an 11% chance that the Kansas City Royals finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the worst record in baseball. The prediction reflects early-season performance and roster composition relative to other struggling teams. The Royals' probability sits above some peers like St. Louis (4%) and New York Mets (3%), but below Chicago White Sox (9%), suggesting Kansas City is viewed as moderately vulnerable to finishing last. The main drivers are the team's win-loss record as games accumulate through the season and injury status of key players. The probability will clarify significantly as May and June progress, with the final determination coming when all 162 games conclude in late September 2026. Teams with similar records and talent levels will see their probabilities fluctuate inversely as the season unfolds.
- ›Kansas City's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other bottom-tier teams as of early May
- ›Injury status and availability of the Royals' key position players and starting pitchers through the season
- ›Trade deadline activity in late July, where struggling teams may sell off assets and further weaken rosters
- ›Performance trajectory of competing teams like Chicago White Sox, St. Louis, and New York Mets who also have low probabilities of worst record
- ›Remaining strength of schedule for Kansas City versus other non-competitive teams in their division and league
What moved the line
- Jul 22Colorado↑10pp39→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Kansas City↓5pp16→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Los Angeles A↑5pp28→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Los Angeles A↓4pp29→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Los Angeles A↓4pp34→30¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 1d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 3d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.