Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between 1 and 10 at the primary's final certification

30-day trend

Analysis

This market measures whether Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell will shift by 1-10 votes between now and final certification of the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary. The 35% probability reflects that small margin shifts are more likely than no change (36%), but less likely than larger swings. The current assessment depends on whether remaining vote counts, recounts, or certification adjustments produce modest vote movements. The primary takes place in August 2026, with certification typically occurring within days to weeks after Election Day. Market pricing suggests traders expect either no material change in the margin or shifts larger than 10 votes, rather than a small single-digit or low double-digit swing. Resolution hinges entirely on the official certified vote totals announced by Minnesota election officials.

• ›The primary election date of August 2026 determines when vote certification begins and the window for final margin calculation
• ›Current polling and early voting patterns between Demuth and Lindell establish the baseline margin before potential recounts or adjustments
• ›Minnesota's certification procedures and timelines—including recount triggers and administrative corrections—will determine which vote changes count toward final certification
• ›The initial reported margin between the candidates sets the denominator; small swings (1-10 votes) become less probable if the reported gap is much larger
• ›Any recount requests, provisional ballot challenges, or discovered counting errors must fall within the 1-10 vote range to resolve this contract affirmatively

What moved the line

• Aug 30No change↑3pp92→95¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-electionlast 33% · 2d
• Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-electionlast 32% · 2d
• Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general electionlast 41% · 2d
• Will Joseph Arminio be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional districtlast 25% · 2d
• Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general electionlast 22% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds