Will Cleveland be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 14, 2027
295 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Indiana be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Indiana be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Indiana
KXNBACENTRAL-26-IND
Cluster 2
Will Detroit be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Detroit be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Detroit
KXNBACENTRAL-26-DET
Cluster 3
Will Cleveland be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Cleveland be the Central Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Cleveland
KXNBACENTRAL-26-CLE
Analysis
This probability indicates a 3% chance that Cleveland wins the NBA's Central Division in the 2026-27 season. The low probability reflects Cleveland's historical performance relative to division rivals like Boston, Miami, and Atlanta, though the division composition and competitive strength can shift with trades and free agency. Key catalysts include the 2026 NBA Draft (June 26, already occurred), free agency signings through July, and preseason performance metrics that emerge in September-October. The probability would move if Cleveland makes significant roster additions or if injury reports from competitors surface during the offseason.
- ›Cleveland's current roster construction and payroll constraints relative to other Central Division teams
- ›Trade activity and free agency signings by Cleveland and rival teams between now and the October 2026 start of the regular season
- ›Preseason performance metrics and injury reports for Cleveland players from September through early October 2026
- ›Historical win-loss records and playoff success rates of Central Division teams over the past 3-5 seasons
- ›Vegas championship odds and over-under win totals for Cleveland versus division competitors as of training camp
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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