Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Seattle before the start of the 2027-28 regular season
Leader sits at 68% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Do not relocate/announce a relocation
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
St. Louis
Spread
54pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
435 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are not relocating or stay in Portland before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Do not relocate/announce a relocation
KXNBARELOCATION-27POR-NONE
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Tampa Bay before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Tampa Bay
KXNBARELOCATION-27POR-TB
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Nashville before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Nashville
KXNBARELOCATION-27POR-NSH
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to St. Louis before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: St. Louis
KXNBARELOCATION-27POR-STL
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Kansas City before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Kansas City
KXNBARELOCATION-27POR-KC
Analysis
Markets currently price an 78% likelihood that the Portland Trail Blazers will not relocate or announce relocation before the 2027-28 NBA season begins, with a 22% combined probability of moves to Seattle (8%) or Tampa Bay (4%). This reflects modest but non-trivial uncertainty about the franchise's future location. The high probability of staying suggests traders believe current ownership and local stakeholders have sufficient incentive to keep the team in Portland, though the franchise's competitive performance and arena infrastructure could drive changes. NBA relocation discussions typically accelerate during ownership transitions or when market conditions shift significantly. Key resolution events include any public statements by current ownership, potential ownership sales, arena renovation announcements or denials, and the franchise's on-court performance trajectory through the 2026-27 season.
- ›Trail Blazers' current ownership structure and stated commitment to Portland operations
- ›Availability and viability of competitive NBA markets (Seattle arena readiness, Tampa Bay market size and existing teams)
- ›Franchise competitiveness and ticket sales trends over the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons
- ›Portland's arena infrastructure plans and local government support for facilities improvements
- ›Any public statements from NBA leadership, ownership groups, or city officials regarding relocation discussions
What moved the line
- Sep 17St. Louis↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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