Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$281
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
139 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will Virginia” vs “Will North Carolina St. qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Virginia
Will Virginia Tech qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Virginia Tech
KXNCAAFACCQUAL-26-VT
Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Virginia
KXNCAAFACCQUAL-26-UVA
Cluster 2
Will North Carolina St. qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 3
Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 4
Will California qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 5
Will Florida St. qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 6
Will Georgia Tech qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 7
Will Louisville qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 8
Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Cluster 9
Will SMU qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
Will SMU qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: SMU
KXNCAAFACCQUAL-26-SMU
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the University of Virginia's football team will qualify for the ACC Championship Game, currently priced at 10%. Virginia would need to finish among the top two teams in the ACC's playoff structure to reach the championship game. The low probability reflects Virginia's recent competitive standing within the conference; the team would need to significantly outperform historical expectations or benefit from weakness among traditional ACC contenders to earn a championship berth. The probability could shift materially based on Virginia's performance during the 2026 regular season, strength of schedule results, and how other ACC teams develop. The season conclusion and final ACC standings, determined after the regular season concludes in late 2026, will ultimately resolve this outcome.
- ›Virginia's conference win-loss record relative to other ACC teams through the end of the regular season
- ›Head-to-head results against other ACC contenders and teams competing for championship spots
- ›Strength of Virginia's out-of-conference schedule results and how those affect tiebreaker scenarios
- ›Injury status and roster changes of key Virginia players throughout the 2026 season
- ›Whether the ACC maintains or modifies its current playoff structure and selection criteria by season's end
What moved the line
- Aug 22Georgia Tech↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Miami (FL)↑6pp59→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Clemson↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Miami (FL)↓5pp64→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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