Will BYU finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$383
17 contracts
Closes
Feb 7, 2027
164 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Arizona” vs “Will BYU finish in the top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Arizona
Will Arizona finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Arizona
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T3-ARIZ
Will Arizona St. finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Arizona St.
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T4-ASU
Will Arizona finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Arizona
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T4-ARIZ
Will Arizona St. finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Arizona St.
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T3-ASU
Cluster 2
Will BYU finish in the top
Cluster 3
Will Colorado finish in the top
Will Colorado finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Colorado
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T3-COLO
Will Colorado finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Colorado
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T4-COLO
Cluster 4
Will Houston finish in the top
Will Houston finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Houston
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T3-HOU
Will Houston finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Houston
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T4-HOU
Cluster 5
Will Kansas St. finish in the top
Will Kansas St. finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Kansas St.
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T3-KSU
Will Kansas St. finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Kansas St.
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T4-KSU
Cluster 6
Will Texas Tech finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Oklahoma St. finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 8
Will TCU finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season
Will TCU finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: TCU
KXNCAAFB12REGTOP-27T3-TCU
Cluster 9
Will Utah finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Baylor finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season
Analysis
This reflects the 17% chance that BYU finishes in the top three of the Big 12 standings in the 2026 regular season. The low probability suggests market participants view BYU as unlikely to compete with the conference's strongest teams this year. The assessment likely reflects BYU's recent performance relative to established Big 12 powers, roster composition, and schedule strength. Key variables include whether BYU's offensive and defensive units perform above or below preseason expectations, coaching staff execution, and injury impacts on key positions. The regular season will conclude in late November 2026, when final standings determine the outcome. Until then, early-season performance through October and November will provide data points that could shift market expectations significantly if BYU either surprises with strong wins or disappoints against ranked opponents.
- ›BYU's strength of schedule and performance against top-25 opponents in the non-conference and conference portions through October-November 2026
- ›Comparative roster quality and recruiting rankings relative to other contenders like Texas Tech (priced at 50¢), Houston, Kansas State, and Utah
- ›Injury status of BYU's key offensive and defensive contributors during the regular season
- ›Head coach Kalani Sitake's track record in Big 12 competition and team execution in high-leverage games
- ›Market pricing disparities showing Texas Tech as the strongest contender (50¢) while BYU ranks fourth at 20¢, indicating consensus tier assessment
What moved the line
- Aug 25Houston↑20pp31→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Utah↓15pp40→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Kansas St.↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Kansas St.↓12pp14→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Texas Tech↓10pp72→62¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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