Will at least 2 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season
Leader sits at 77% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3+ teams
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
5+ teams
Spread
66pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
110 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 3 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams
KXNCAAFBIGTENWINS-26W10-3
Will at least 7 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 7+ teams
KXNCAAFBIGTENWINS-26W10-7
Will at least 6 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 6+ teams
KXNCAAFBIGTENWINS-26W10-6
Will at least 5 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 5+ teams
KXNCAAFBIGTENWINS-26W10-5
Analysis
This contract asks whether at least 2 Big Ten teams will reach 10 wins during the 2026 regular season. At 86%, the market reflects high confidence that multiple teams will cross this threshold, though not certainty. The Big Ten's strength and depth—particularly teams returning experienced rosters from 2025—support this outlook. The probability would decline if preseason injuries or recruiting losses weaken traditional powerhouses, or if the conference's non-conference schedule proves more competitive than expected. Resolution depends entirely on final 2026 regular-season records, with the outcome determined after the conference's final games in November 2026. Historical Big Ten performance shows multiple 10-win teams occur frequently, but conference parity and scheduling variance introduce meaningful uncertainty at the margin.
- ›2025-2026 Big Ten team rosters and returning starter counts, particularly for Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other contenders
- ›Preseason injury reports and recruiting class rankings for major programs entering summer 2026
- ›Non-conference strength of schedule and upset potential against Big Ten programs before conference play begins
- ›Conference win distribution and whether traditional top teams maintain separation or parity increases
- ›Final regular-season records of Big Ten teams as of November 2026, the sole determinant of contract resolution
What moved the line
- Sep 175+ teams↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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