Montana wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$167
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Tarleton St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Tarleton St
Tarleton St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Tarleton St.
KXNCAAFFCS-27-TARL
Cluster 2
Montana St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Montana St
Montana St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Montana St.
KXNCAAFFCS-27-MTST
Cluster 3
South Dakota St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: South Dakota St
South Dakota St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: South Dakota St.
KXNCAAFFCS-27-SDST
Cluster 4
Stephen F. Austin wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Stephen F. Austin
KXNCAAFFCS-27-SFA
Cluster 5
North Dakota wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: North Dakota
North Dakota wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: North Dakota
KXNCAAFFCS-27-UND
Analysis
An 11% probability means traders assess roughly a 1-in-9 chance that the University of Montana Grizzlies win the FCS National Championship in the 2026-27 season. This probability reflects market pricing for a team competing in a highly competitive Division I FCS landscape against dozens of other eligible programs. Montana's championship odds are driven by factors including current roster composition, recruiting strength, coaching continuity, and recent on-field performance relative to conference rivals. The main uncertainty will resolve through the regular season performance beginning in fall 2026 and continuing through the playoff tournament concluding in January 2027. Key upcoming developments include preseason rankings, early-season game results, and playoff seeding announcements that will significantly influence championship probability adjustments.
- ›Montana's recent FCS playoff history and win-loss record compared to current roster strength and returning starters
- ›Strength of schedule during the 2026-27 regular season and conference competition within the Big Sky Conference
- ›Comparative probabilities of rival programs (Montana State at 25% and South Dakota State at 4%) suggest relative market confidence levels
- ›Coaching staff continuity, recruiting class performance, and injuries to key players heading into fall training camp
- ›Playoff tournament structure and seeding outcomes, which determine tournament path difficulty and access to games against lower-seeded opponents
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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