Will Texas Tech go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$200
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
115 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Miami (” vs “Will Oklahoma go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Miami (
Cluster 2
Will Oklahoma go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 3
Will Alabama go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Alabama go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Alabama
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-ALA
Cluster 4
Will Arizona St. go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Auburn go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Auburn go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Auburn
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-AUB
Cluster 6
Will Boise St. go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 7
Will BYU go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will BYU go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: BYU
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-BYU
Cluster 8
Will California go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Clemson go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Clemson go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Clemson
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-CLEM
Cluster 10
Will Florida go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Florida go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Florida
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-FLA
Cluster 11
Will Houston go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Houston go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Houston
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-HOU
Cluster 12
Will Indiana go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Indiana go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Indiana
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-IND
Cluster 13
Will Iowa go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will Iowa go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Iowa
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-IOWA
Cluster 14
Will James Madison go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 15
Will Kansas St. go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 16
Will Louisville go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 17
Will LSU go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Will LSU go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: LSU
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATEDHOME-27-LSU
Cluster 18
Will Michigan go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 19
Will Ole Miss go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season
Analysis
This probability represents whether Texas Tech will win every home football game during the 2026 regular season. At 22%, the market suggests it's unlikely but not impossible. Home field advantage matters in college football, but Texas Tech must avoid losses to visiting opponents over a full season—typically 6-7 games. The probability reflects the team's recent competitiveness, conference strength, and historical consistency at home. Factors that could shift this include coaching staff changes, roster depth, opponent scheduling difficulty, and early-season home game results. Resolution occurs in late November 2026 when the regular season concludes, with each home loss eliminating the possibility. Texas Tech's home undefeated streak would be notable but rarer than most individual rivalry upsets or conference tournament performances.
- ›Texas Tech's historical home win rate and record against conference opponents at Jones AT&T Stadium over recent seasons
- ›2026 home schedule composition—strength of visiting opponents and clustering of ranked teams in Lubbock games
- ›Roster continuity and quarterback stability heading into 2026, affecting both offensive consistency and defensive performance
- ›Comparison to peer programs: Georgia trades at 34¢ while most other Power/mid-major programs trade below 15¢, suggesting relative confidence in Texas Tech
- ›Early home game outcomes (September-October 2026) will provide first concrete data to update from current 22% baseline
What moved the line
- Sep 12Florida↑24pp8→32¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Alabama↑20pp16→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Auburn↑18pp5→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12James Madison↑18pp35→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Louisville↑18pp15→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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