Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
9 contracts
Closes
Mar 28, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Cluster 2
Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Illinois
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-ILL
Cluster 3
Will Indiana be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will Indiana be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Indiana
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-IND
Cluster 4
Will Nebraska be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will Nebraska be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Nebraska
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-NEB
Cluster 5
Will Oregon be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will Oregon be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Oregon
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-ORE
Cluster 6
Will Purdue be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will Purdue be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Purdue
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-PUR
Cluster 7
Will USC be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will USC be the Big Ten tournament champions?: USC
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-USC
Cluster 8
Will Wisconsin be the Big Ten tournament champions
Will Wisconsin be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Wisconsin
KXNCAAMBBIG10-27-WIS
Analysis
Illinois is currently priced at 47% to win the Big Ten tournament, placing it as a competitive contender in the field. This probability reflects Illinois's position as a mid-tier favorite among Big Ten schools, trailing Nebraska (97¢) but ahead of USC (29¢). The pricing would likely shift based on team performance during the regular season, including win-loss records, strength of schedule results, and any roster changes or injuries affecting key players. The Big Ten tournament itself, typically held in March, represents the primary resolution event. Illinois's tournament odds depend on securing a favorable seeding through regular-season play and then navigating the tournament bracket successfully. Current market liquidity is relatively modest, with limited 24-hour volume, suggesting prices may adjust as the tournament approaches and more information becomes available about team form and matchup dynamics.
- ›Illinois's regular-season record and final Big Ten standing, which directly determines tournament seeding and bracket position
- ›Comparative strength of Big Ten competitors, particularly Nebraska's continued performance relative to Illinois throughout the season
- ›Injury status and roster stability of Illinois's key rotation players entering the tournament
- ›The specific tournament bracket structure and potential matchup advantages or disadvantages Illinois may face
- ›Recent head-to-head records and trends between Illinois and other tournament contenders
What moved the line
- Sep 17Nebraska↑15pp4→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Illinois↓10pp13→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Illinois↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Illinois↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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