Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $0.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 40% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $1.00
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Below $0.50
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
143 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $
Analysis
This contract measures whether NEAR's trimmed mean price will fall below $0.50 by year-end 2026. At 74% probability for the $1.50 threshold and only 3% for $0.50, traders assign low probability to extreme downside but expect continued price decline over the next five months. The pricing reflects NEAR's recent performance and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The spread between contracts ($1.50 at 74% versus $0.50 at 3%) suggests traders see moderate weakness as likely but complete collapse as unlikely. Resolution depends on market sentiment toward NEAR's ecosystem development, adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors affecting crypto valuations. Year-end typically brings holiday trading patterns and tax-loss harvesting that could accelerate downward or stabilize prices.
- ›NEAR's current spot price relative to $0.50 and $1.50 resistance levels; distance-to-target determines probability of crossing thresholds
- ›Trimmed mean calculation method used by contract issuer; spreads and outlier treatment directly affect final settlement value
- ›Network adoption metrics and developer activity through 2026; declining on-chain usage would pressure prices downward
- ›Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements; NEAR historically correlates with major crypto market cycles
- ›Kalshi contract liquidity ($0 24h volume across all three tiers) suggests low trading interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads affecting price reliability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (40% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.