Who will the next Pope be
Leader sits at 5% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Pietro Parolin
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Luis Antonio Tagle
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2070
15943 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will the next Pope be
Who will the next Pope be?: Anders Arborelius
KXNEWPOPE-70-AARB
Who will the next Pope be?: Peter Erdo
KXNEWPOPE-70-PERD
Who will the next Pope be?: Matteo Zuppi
KXNEWPOPE-70-MZUP
Who will the next Pope be?: Luis Antonio Tagle
KXNEWPOPE-70-LANT
Who will the next Pope be?: Fridolin Ambongo
KXNEWPOPE-70-FAMB
Who will the next Pope be?: Pietro Parolin
KXNEWPOPE-70-PPAR
Who will the next Pope be?: Pierbattista Pizzaballa
KXNEWPOPE-70-PPIZ
Analysis
This 5% probability reflects market sentiment on who will become the next Pope, priced from seven different contracts on Kalshi. The current Pope Francis is 88 years old, but papal succession remains inherently unpredictable due to the closed nature of papal conclaves and the long-standing health of the current pontiff. The probability would likely increase if Pope Francis experienced a significant health decline or announced retirement, and would decrease with reports of improved health or longevity. The primary resolution driver is the occurrence of a papal vacancy, which is the only trigger for selecting a new Pope—currently an uncertain timeline that could range from immediately to many years ahead.
- ›Pope Francis is currently 88 years old; market pricing reflects base rates for succession at advanced age balanced against his demonstrated longevity
- ›Papal conclaves are closed-door processes with limited predictability; identity of cardinals eligible to vote and their preferences remain largely unknown to external observers
- ›The 5% price is the highest-priced contract among seven competing candidates, indicating no single outcome dominates market expectations
- ›Historical papal reigns average 9-10 years; Francis has served since 2013, providing limited historical guidance on timing
- ›Any public health announcement regarding the current Pope would immediately alter probability across all successor contracts
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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