Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Shabana Mahmood has a 16% chance of becoming the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. As Justice Secretary in the current Labour government, she is positioned within the senior cabinet but faces competition from other senior figures for this specific role. The current probability is driven by two main dynamics: first, her distance from the Treasury and finance portfolio compared to other contenders, and second, the relatively low trading volume on her contract ($71 in 24-hour volume) compared to leading candidates like Wes Streeting (50¢, $1,114 volume). Her ascension would primarily depend on either a significant shift in government priorities elevating her profile, or unexpected departures among higher-probability candidates. The resolution of this market is contingent on when a Chancellor vacancy actually occurs and the Prime Minister makes a successor appointment.

• ›Mahmood's current portfolio is Justice Secretary, not Treasury-aligned; leading candidates like Streeting hold Health and other senior roles
• ›Wes Streeting is priced at 50¢ while Mahmood is at 5¢, indicating markets view him as substantially more likely
• ›Mahmood's contract has minimal liquidity ($71 24h volume) versus top candidates with 10-25x higher volume, suggesting lower trader confidence
• ›Her advancement would require either an unexpected vacancy at Chancellor or a major cabinet reshuffle that elevates her Treasury profile
• ›No scheduled event or Treasury-related appointment timeline appears imminent that would directly impact her candidacy

What moved the line

• Jun 23Wes Streeting↑8pp42→50¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Ed Miliband↑6pp12→18¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Yvette Cooper↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 4d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 5d
• Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 5d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 5d
• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 5d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds