Will Los Angeles C be the AFC 1 Seed
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Denver be the AFC 1 Seed”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles
Cluster 2
Will Denver be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Denver be the AFC 1 Seed?: Denver
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-DEN
Cluster 3
Will San Francisco be the NFC 1 Seed
Will San Francisco be the NFC 1 Seed?: San Francisco
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-SF
Cluster 4
Will Dallas be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Dallas be the NFC 1 Seed?: Dallas
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-DAL
Cluster 5
Will Seattle be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Seattle be the NFC 1 Seed?: Seattle
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-SEA
Cluster 6
Will Philadelphia be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Philadelphia be the NFC 1 Seed?: Philadelphia
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-PHI
Cluster 7
Will Detroit be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Detroit be the NFC 1 Seed?: Detroit
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-DET
Cluster 8
Will Buffalo be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Buffalo be the AFC 1 Seed?: Buffalo
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-BUF
Cluster 9
Will Minnesota be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Minnesota be the NFC 1 Seed?: Minnesota
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-MIN
Cluster 10
Will Houston be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Houston be the AFC 1 Seed?: Houston
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-HOU
Cluster 11
Will Kansas City be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Kansas City be the AFC 1 Seed?: Kansas City
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-KC
Cluster 12
Will Baltimore be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Baltimore be the AFC 1 Seed?: Baltimore
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-BAL
Cluster 13
Will Green Bay be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Green Bay be the NFC 1 Seed?: Green Bay
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-GB
Cluster 14
Will New England be the AFC 1 Seed
Will New England be the AFC 1 Seed?: New England
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-NE
Cluster 15
Will Cincinnati be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Cincinnati be the AFC 1 Seed?: Cincinnati
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-CIN
Analysis
This 9% probability indicates traders believe the Los Angeles Chargers have a roughly 1-in-11 chance of securing the AFC's top playoff seed. The Chargers face substantial competition from established AFC contenders like Buffalo (15% implied probability) and Kansas City (7%), suggesting the market views them as underdogs for the division title or conference success. Their path to the 1 seed depends heavily on divisional performance, head-to-head records against elite teams, and sustained offensive production. The Chargers' probability would shift based on injury developments, mid-season win-loss records, and strength of schedule relative to other AFC contenders. Resolution occurs after the 2026 NFL regular season concludes in early January 2027, when playoff seeding is finalized based on final regular-season standings and tiebreaker rules.
- ›Chargers' win-loss record through mid-season (by October-November 2026) relative to Buffalo, Kansas City, and other AFC contenders
- ›Injury status of key Chargers players, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line
- ›Head-to-head results and strength of schedule (common opponent records) comparing Chargers to other AFC teams competing for top seed
- ›Chargers' record in divisional games within the AFC West against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Denver
- ›Trading volume and contract price on Kalshi remains at $0 24h volume, suggesting low market conviction or limited active interest in this outcome
What moved the line
- Aug 21Los Angeles R↓6pp23→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Dallas↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Houston↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Los Angeles R↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 5d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 6d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 7d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 7d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.