Will Los Angeles C be the AFC 1 Seed
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
98 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cleveland be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Cleveland be the AFC 1 Seed?: Cleveland
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-CLE
Cluster 2
Will Seattle be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Seattle be the NFC 1 Seed?: Seattle
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-SEA
Cluster 3
Will Detroit be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Detroit be the NFC 1 Seed?: Detroit
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-DET
Cluster 4
Will Los Angeles R be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Los Angeles R be the NFC 1 Seed?: Los Angeles R
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-LAR
Cluster 5
Will Kansas City be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Kansas City be the AFC 1 Seed?: Kansas City
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-KC
Cluster 6
Will Minnesota be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Minnesota be the NFC 1 Seed?: Minnesota
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-MIN
Cluster 7
Will Atlanta be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Atlanta be the NFC 1 Seed?: Atlanta
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-ATL
Cluster 8
Will Buffalo be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Buffalo be the AFC 1 Seed?: Buffalo
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-BUF
Cluster 9
Will San Francisco be the NFC 1 Seed
Will San Francisco be the NFC 1 Seed?: San Francisco
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-SF
Cluster 10
Will Jacksonville be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Jacksonville be the AFC 1 Seed?: Jacksonville
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-JAC
Cluster 11
Will Baltimore be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Baltimore be the AFC 1 Seed?: Baltimore
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-BAL
Cluster 12
Will Cincinnati be the AFC 1 Seed
Will Cincinnati be the AFC 1 Seed?: Cincinnati
KXNFL1SEED-AFC26-CIN
Cluster 13
Will Chicago be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Chicago be the NFC 1 Seed?: Chicago
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-CHI
Cluster 14
Will Dallas be the NFC 1 Seed
Will Dallas be the NFC 1 Seed?: Dallas
KXNFL1SEED-NFC26-DAL
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that the Los Angeles Chargers will finish the 2026 NFL regular season as the top seed in the AFC. At 12%, the market is pricing the Chargers as a meaningful but not dominant contender for the top spot, suggesting bettors see significant competition from other AFC teams. The current level likely reflects the Chargers' regular-season performance through early October, divisional strength within the AFC West, and their trajectory relative to rivals. The probability could shift substantially based on upcoming performance through the remainder of the season, particularly how the Chargers perform in division games and against other AFC playoff contenders. The final resolution will occur after the NFL regular season concludes in early January 2027, when final standings determine the AFC 1 seed based on win-loss records and tiebreakers.
- ›Chargers' current record and win-loss trajectory compared to other AFC teams as of early October 2026
- ›Strength of schedule for Los Angeles in remaining regular season games versus primary AFC contenders
- ›Performance in AFC West divisional games, which carry weight in playoff seeding and conference strength assessments
- ›Health and availability of key roster players, particularly at quarterback and defensive positions
- ›Head-to-head results and strength of schedule tiebreakers against other AFC teams with similar records
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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