Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
10 contracts
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
295 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Jacksonville
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-JAC
Cluster 2
Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Buffalo
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BUF
Cluster 3
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC
Cluster 4
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Denver
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN
Cluster 5
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Cluster 6
Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Houston
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-HOU
Cluster 7
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Baltimore
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BAL
Cluster 8
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Los Angeles C
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LAC
Cluster 9
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Cincinnati
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CIN
Cluster 10
Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship
Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Indianapolis
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-IND
Analysis
This 9% probability indicates that betting markets view Indianapolis as an unlikely but possible AFC Championship winner for the 2027 season. The Colts' low odds reflect their recent playoff performance and roster composition relative to stronger AFC contenders. Market pricing would likely shift upward if Indianapolis demonstrated consistent playoff success, acquired premium talent in upcoming drafts or free agency, or if their current conference competitors faced injury setbacks. The primary uncertainty resolver is the 2027 AFC Championship game itself, scheduled for early January 2027, which will determine whether the Colts advance to the Super Bowl. Secondary indicators include draft outcomes, free-agency transactions, and regular-season performance through late 2026, each providing incremental information about playoff trajectory.
- ›Colts' regular-season win-loss record and divisional standing heading into the 2026 playoffs
- ›Availability and performance of Indianapolis's quarterback and key offensive/defensive players during the 2026-2027 season
- ›Comparative strength of other AFC teams—Houston and Buffalo currently carry higher probability and contain similar divisional positioning
- ›Draft picks acquired and free-agent signings by Indianapolis versus competing AFC teams
- ›Head-to-head playoff seeding and matchup scenarios that would determine who Indianapolis faces in the AFC Championship game
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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