SimpleFunctions
10 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Feb 22, 2027 · 295d

Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$4K

10 contracts

Closes

Feb 22, 2027

295 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (8 days, 8 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-05-02
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 8d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 2

Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$636

Cluster 3

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$602

Cluster 4

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$462

Cluster 5

Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$428

Cluster 6

Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$329

Cluster 7

Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$73

Cluster 8

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 9% probability indicates that betting markets view Indianapolis as an unlikely but possible AFC Championship winner for the 2027 season. The Colts' low odds reflect their recent playoff performance and roster composition relative to stronger AFC contenders. Market pricing would likely shift upward if Indianapolis demonstrated consistent playoff success, acquired premium talent in upcoming drafts or free agency, or if their current conference competitors faced injury setbacks. The primary uncertainty resolver is the 2027 AFC Championship game itself, scheduled for early January 2027, which will determine whether the Colts advance to the Super Bowl. Secondary indicators include draft outcomes, free-agency transactions, and regular-season performance through late 2026, each providing incremental information about playoff trajectory.

  • Colts' regular-season win-loss record and divisional standing heading into the 2026 playoffs
  • Availability and performance of Indianapolis's quarterback and key offensive/defensive players during the 2026-2027 season
  • Comparative strength of other AFC teams—Houston and Buffalo currently carry higher probability and contain similar divisional positioning
  • Draft picks acquired and free-agent signings by Indianapolis versus competing AFC teams
  • Head-to-head playoff seeding and matchup scenarios that would determine who Indianapolis faces in the AFC Championship game

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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