Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the market's estimate that Sean McVay has a 23% chance of winning the NBA Coach of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The relatively modest probability reflects that while McVay is a respected coach, other candidates appear to have stronger cases based on current contract pricing. Joe Mazzulla trades at 94 cents, suggesting he's the clear favorite, while several other coaches trade higher than McVay's implied odds. The award typically goes to coaches who achieve significant regular-season success, particularly those whose teams exceed preseason expectations or show substantial improvement. The probability could shift based on McVay's team performance through the remainder of the season and how his results compare to competing candidates' records. The award will be determined in late April 2026 following the regular season's conclusion, at which point voters will assess each candidate's full body of work.

• ›Joe Mazzulla's contract trades at 94 cents versus McVay's 23-cent implied probability, indicating market consensus that Mazzulla is significantly favored
• ›McVay's team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to preseason expectations will be central to voting considerations
• ›Coaching award voters typically reward teams that exceed expectations or show dramatic year-over-year improvement rather than consistent winners
• ›Contract volume and pricing suggest the market has limited conviction in McVay's candidacy compared to frontrunners
• ›The award is determined by voting following the regular season ending in April 2026, with final standings and records being the primary evaluation criteria

What moved the line

• Jun 23John Harbaugh↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Klint Kubiak↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds