Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$354
18 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
660 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Klint Kubiak win the Coach of the Year
Will Klint Kubiak win the Coach of the Year?: Klint Kubiak
KXNFLCOTY-27-KKUB
Cluster 2
Will John Harbaugh win the Coach of the Year
Will John Harbaugh win the Coach of the Year?: John Harbaugh
KXNFLCOTY-27-JOHAR
Cluster 3
Will Kellen Moore win the Coach of the Year
Will Kellen Moore win the Coach of the Year?: Kellen Moore
KXNFLCOTY-27-KMOO
Cluster 4
Will Robert Saleh win the Coach of the Year
Will Robert Saleh win the Coach of the Year?: Robert Saleh
KXNFLCOTY-27-RSAL
Cluster 5
Will Mike LaFleur win the Coach of the Year
Will Mike LaFleur win the Coach of the Year?: Mike LaFleur
KXNFLCOTY-27-MILAF
Cluster 6
Will Dan Quinn win the Coach of the Year
Will Dan Quinn win the Coach of the Year?: Dan Quinn
KXNFLCOTY-27-DQUI
Cluster 7
Will Jeff Hafley win the Coach of the Year
Will Jeff Hafley win the Coach of the Year?: Jeff Hafley
KXNFLCOTY-27-JHAF
Cluster 8
Will Kevin Stefanski win the Coach of the Year
Will Kevin Stefanski win the Coach of the Year?: Kevin Stefanski
KXNFLCOTY-27-KSTE
Cluster 9
Will Jesse Minter win the Coach of the Year
Will Jesse Minter win the Coach of the Year?: Jesse Minter
KXNFLCOTY-27-JMIN
Cluster 10
Will Joe Brady win the Coach of the Year
Will Joe Brady win the Coach of the Year?: Joe Brady
KXNFLCOTY-27-JBRA
Cluster 11
Will Dave Canales win the Coach of the Year
Will Dave Canales win the Coach of the Year?: Dave Canales
KXNFLCOTY-27-DCAN
Cluster 12
Will Ben Johnson win the Coach of the Year
Will Ben Johnson win the Coach of the Year?: Ben Johnson
KXNFLCOTY-27-BJOH
Cluster 13
Will Todd Monken win the Coach of the Year
Will Todd Monken win the Coach of the Year?: Todd Monken
KXNFLCOTY-27-TMON
Cluster 14
Will Dan Campbell win the Coach of the Year
Will Dan Campbell win the Coach of the Year?: Dan Campbell
KXNFLCOTY-27-DCAM
Cluster 15
Will DeMeco Ryans win the Coach of the Year
Will DeMeco Ryans win the Coach of the Year?: DeMeco Ryans
KXNFLCOTY-27-DRYA
Cluster 16
Will Liam Coen win the Coach of the Year
Will Liam Coen win the Coach of the Year?: Liam Coen
KXNFLCOTY-27-LCOE
Cluster 17
Will Jim Harbaugh win the Coach of the Year
Will Jim Harbaugh win the Coach of the Year?: Jim Harbaugh
KXNFLCOTY-27-JIHAR
Cluster 18
Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year
Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year?: Sean McVay
KXNFLCOTY-27-SMCV
Analysis
This represents the market's estimate that Sean McVay has a 23% chance of winning the NBA Coach of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The relatively modest probability reflects that while McVay is a respected coach, other candidates appear to have stronger cases based on current contract pricing. Joe Mazzulla trades at 94 cents, suggesting he's the clear favorite, while several other coaches trade higher than McVay's implied odds. The award typically goes to coaches who achieve significant regular-season success, particularly those whose teams exceed preseason expectations or show substantial improvement. The probability could shift based on McVay's team performance through the remainder of the season and how his results compare to competing candidates' records. The award will be determined in late April 2026 following the regular season's conclusion, at which point voters will assess each candidate's full body of work.
- ›Joe Mazzulla's contract trades at 94 cents versus McVay's 23-cent implied probability, indicating market consensus that Mazzulla is significantly favored
- ›McVay's team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to preseason expectations will be central to voting considerations
- ›Coaching award voters typically reward teams that exceed expectations or show dramatic year-over-year improvement rather than consistent winners
- ›Contract volume and pricing suggest the market has limited conviction in McVay's candidacy compared to frontrunners
- ›The award is determined by voting following the regular season ending in April 2026, with final standings and records being the primary evaluation criteria
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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