Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Leader sits at 89% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
28+ total wins
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
30+ total wins
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
204 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the teams in the AFC
Will the teams in the AFC East record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 28+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCEAST-28
Will the teams in the AFC West record at least 32 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 32+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCWEST-32
Will the teams in the AFC West record at least 30 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 30+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCWEST-30
Will the teams in the AFC West record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 28+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCWEST-28
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 42 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 42+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-42
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 38 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 38+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-38
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 36 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 36+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-36
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 34 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 34+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-34
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 32 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 32+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-32
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 30 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 30+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-30
Will the teams in the AFC South record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 28+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCSOUTH-28
Will the teams in the AFC North record at least 38 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 38+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCNORTH-38
Will the teams in the AFC North record at least 36 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 36+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCNORTH-36
Will the teams in the AFC North record at least 34 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 34+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCNORTH-34
Will the teams in the AFC North record at least 32 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 32+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCNORTH-32
Will the teams in the AFC North record at least 30 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 30+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCNORTH-30
Will the teams in the AFC North record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 28+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCNORTH-28
Will the teams in the AFC East record at least 34 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 34+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCEAST-34
Will the teams in the AFC East record at least 32 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 32+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCEAST-32
Will the teams in the AFC East record at least 30 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 30+ total wins
KXNFLDIVISIONWINS-27AFCEAST-30
Analysis
This contract tracks whether the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, and Detroit Lions will combine for at least 28 wins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The 83% probability reflects market confidence that this relatively modest total is likely to be reached. The NFC North's recent trajectory matters considerably: the Lions have been competitive, while the Packers and Bears have shown inconsistent performance. Division strength typically hinges on injury rates, quarterback play, and trade deadline acquisitions. The outcome becomes clear only after the final games in early January 2027, though the division's playoff positioning by December will signal whether the win total is within reach. Comparison markets suggest similar divisions are viewed less favorably—the AFC North sits at 72% for the same 28-win threshold—indicating scouts may view the NFC North as structurally stronger.
- ›Historical NFC North win totals: the division averaged 26-27 combined wins in recent seasons; reaching 28 requires above-trend performance
- ›Injury impact on key players: significant losses to starting quarterbacks, running backs, or defensive stalwarts at any team could reduce collective output by 2-4 wins
- ›Regular season length and structure: the 2026-27 season follows standard 17-game format; strength of schedule affects win likelihood across the three teams
- ›Playoff contention dynamics: teams fighting for postseason spots tend to win more in final weeks, inflating totals in compressed schedules
- ›Trade deadline acquisitions: adding proven talent in mid-season can shift individual team win projections by 1-3 games collectively
What moved the line
- Jul 928+ total wins↓10pp89→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 932+ total wins↓10pp86→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 932+ total wins↓9pp63→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1036+ total wins↓9pp29→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 928+ total wins↓9pp83→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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