Will the teams in the AFC West have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Leader sits at 30% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
NFC North
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
NFC West
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$179
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
202 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the teams in
Will the teams in the NFC North have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: NFC North
KXNFLDIVMOSTWINS-27-NFCNORTH
Will the teams in the AFC West have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: AFC West
KXNFLDIVMOSTWINS-27-AFCWEST
Will the teams in the NFC West have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: NFC West
KXNFLDIVMOSTWINS-27-NFCWEST
Analysis
This 21% probability indicates that market participants believe the AFC West has roughly a one-in-five chance of accumulating more regular-season wins than any other NFL division during the 2026-27 season. The AFC West's probability reflects the strength of its constituent teams—particularly the Kansas City Chiefs' sustained competitive advantage—but also acknowledges that other divisions, like the NFC North and NFC East, have comparable roster depth and recent performance. The market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty: the runner-up (NFC North at 10%) shows that no division is heavily favored to lead in total wins. The outcome will depend on injury developments before the season, trade activity and free-agent acquisitions through March 2027, and how coaching changes across divisions affect team performance. Final resolution occurs after the 2026-27 regular season concludes in early 2027, when total divisional wins can be definitively calculated.
- ›Kansas City Chiefs' playoff track record and offseason roster moves relative to AFC West competitors
- ›Injury status and availability of star quarterbacks and key defensive players across AFC West teams heading into September 2026
- ›Free-agency and trade decisions by AFC West teams compared to rival divisions, particularly the NFC North and NFC East
- ›Recent regular-season win totals for each division: AFC West teams' combined wins in 2025-26 versus historical averages for competing divisions
- ›Schedule difficulty: strength of schedule for AFC West teams relative to NFC North and NFC East in 2026-27, which affects win probability variance
What moved the line
- Jul 12AFC West↑10pp2→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9NFC North↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7NFC West↑6pp12→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8NFC North↑5pp9→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10NFC North↑4pp22→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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