Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects near-certain conviction that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.99% on July 13, 2026. The 97% probability indicates traders expect yields to remain above this threshold through tomorrow, with contracts pricing progressively lower odds as yield targets rise (96% for 4.99%, 68% for 5.04%, 16% for 5.09%). Treasury yields are sensitive to inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and global rate expectations. The immediate resolution occurs at market close on July 13, making this a very short-duration bet with minimal time for new information to arrive. Current positioning suggests minimal tail risk of a sudden yield collapse below 4.99%, though geopolitical shocks, unexpected economic data, or Fed communications could theoretically shift longer-term rate expectations. The market structure shows declining conviction at higher yield thresholds, indicating genuine uncertainty about whether yields will substantially exceed 5% even as consensus leans strongly toward the base case.

• ›30Y Treasury yields closed July 12 near or above 4.99%, making tomorrow's maintenance of this level the base expectation with only overnight gaps creating downside risk
• ›Federal Reserve policy stance and inflation expectations anchor long-term yield levels; any unexpected economic data or Fed communications between now and market close could move yields materially
• ›The 24-hour volume concentration ($221 on the 5.09% contract versus $2 on the 4.99% contract) suggests active disagreement on upper-bound outcomes but strong consensus on the sub-5% base case
• ›Geopolitical events, credit market stress, or flight-to-quality flows could rapidly drive yields downward, though the 97% price implies such scenarios carry minimal market-assigned probability
• ›Resolution occurs within 24 hours with no major scheduled economic releases expected, limiting new catalysts that could alter the current yield trajectory

What moved the line

• Jul 125.1% or above↓20pp37→17¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 125.2% or above↓19pp25→6¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 125.05% or above↑18pp58→76¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 115.15% or above↓12pp14→2¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 115.05% or above↓6pp64→58¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in fed rate

• Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 0d
• Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026last 90% · 0d
• Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
• Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 0d
• What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 53% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds