Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2028
502 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dallas Turner win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Dallas Turner win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Dallas Turner
KXNFLDPOTY-27-DTURNER15
Cluster 2
Will Maxx Crosby win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Maxx Crosby win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Maxx Crosby
KXNFLDPOTY-27-MCRO
Cluster 3
Will Fred Warner win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Fred Warner win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Fred Warner
KXNFLDPOTY-27-FWAR
Cluster 4
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Will Anderson Jr.
KXNFLDPOTY-27-WAND
Cluster 5
Will T.J. Watt win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will T.J. Watt win the Defensive Player of the Year?: T.J. Watt
KXNFLDPOTY-27-TWAT
Cluster 6
Will Aidan Hutchinson win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Aidan Hutchinson win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Aidan Hutchinson
KXNFLDPOTY-27-AHUT
Analysis
Nick Bosa's 8% probability reflects market expectations that he will not win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. This probability sits below several competing defensive players, notably Will Anderson Jr. at 12%, suggesting Bosa faces stiff competition. Bosa's chances depend on his individual defensive statistics this season—sack totals, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles—relative to other elite edge rushers and interior defenders. The award typically rewards either exceptional pass-rush productivity or dominant run-stopping performance. The 2026 NFL season performance and final statistical comparisons among elite defenders will determine the outcome, with the award announcement occurring in early 2027. Current market pricing suggests oddsmakers view other defenders as more likely to produce the elite numbers historically required for this honor.
- ›Bosa's 2026 season sack and tackle-for-loss totals relative to other defensive ends and edge rushers
- ›Competition from higher-probability candidates like Will Anderson Jr. (12¢) and Aidan Hutchinson (9¢) who may accumulate comparable or superior statistics
- ›Historical DPOY voting patterns favoring either dominant pass-rush production (15+ sacks) or exceptional interior defensive line performance
- ›Injuries to Bosa or other top candidates during the 2026 season, which would shift probability distributions across the market
- ›Team success and visibility—DPOY voting is sometimes influenced by playoff seeding and national exposure despite being an individual award
What moved the line
- Sep 17T.J. Watt↑8pp3→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Aidan Hutchinson↑8pp12→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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