Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
14h ago
24h volume
$287
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2028
646 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Will Anderson Jr.
KXNFLDPOTY-27-WAND
Cluster 2
Will Maxx Crosby win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Maxx Crosby win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Maxx Crosby
KXNFLDPOTY-27-MCRO
Cluster 3
Will Myles Garrett win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Myles Garrett win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Myles Garrett
KXNFLDPOTY-27-MGAR
Cluster 4
Will Devin Lloyd win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Devin Lloyd win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Devin Lloyd
KXNFLDPOTY-27-DLLO
Cluster 5
Will Aidan Hutchinson win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Aidan Hutchinson win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Aidan Hutchinson
KXNFLDPOTY-27-AHUT
Cluster 6
Will Jared Verse win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Jared Verse win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Jared Verse
KXNFLDPOTY-27-JVER
Cluster 7
Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Nick Bosa
KXNFLDPOTY-27-NBOS
Cluster 8
Will Nik Bonitto win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Nik Bonitto win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Nik Bonitto
KXNFLDPOTY-27-NBON
Analysis
This represents the implied probability that Nick Bosa will be named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year for the 2026 season. At 4%, the market is pricing Bosa as a long-shot candidate, suggesting traders believe other defenders are more likely to earn the award. DPOY voters typically favor players with dominant statistical seasons—sack leaders, tackle records, or game-changing interception totals—combined with team success. Bosa's probability is constrained by several factors: competition from established elite pass rushers, the requirement for standout individual production across the full 17-game season, and the historical tendency for voters to recognize multiple different players rather than the same winner repeatedly. The 2026 NFL season will provide the statistical record determining DPOY eligibility, with voting occurring in early 2027 following the playoffs. Changes to this probability would track Bosa's actual performance metrics throughout the season, injuries to competing candidates, and his team's overall defensive ranking.
- ›Bosa must rank among league leaders in sacks or other measurable defensive statistics during the 2026 regular season to be seriously considered
- ›Players from playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders historically have higher DPOY win rates, making San Francisco's performance relevant
- ›DPOY voting occurs post-season in early 2027, so the market probability may shift substantially based on 2026 regular season performance data
- ›Competition includes multiple established pass rushers and elite defensive players, diluting any single candidate's probability
- ›Injuries to Bosa or other top defensive candidates during the season would be a significant catalyst for probability movement
What moved the line
- Apr 26Maxx Crosby↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Nik Bonitto↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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