Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
524 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jacob Rodriguez win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jacob Rodriguez win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Jacob Rodriguez
KXNFLDROTY-27-JROD
Cluster 2
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs
KXNFLDROTY-27-CDOW
Cluster 3
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Sonny Styles
KXNFLDROTY-27-SSTY
Cluster 4
Will Anthony Hill Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Anthony Hill Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Anthony Hill Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-AHILL53
Cluster 5
Will Mansoor Delane win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Mansoor Delane win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Mansoor Delane
KXNFLDROTY-27-MDEL
Cluster 6
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese
KXNFLDROTY-27-AREE
Cluster 7
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Cluster 8
Will David Bailey win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will David Bailey win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: David Bailey
KXNFLDROTY-27-DBAI
Analysis
This 11% probability reflects market expectations that Rueben Bain Jr. has roughly a 1-in-9 chance of winning the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year award. The current odds place him behind David Bailey (21%) but slightly ahead of other contenders like Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs. The market is pricing in Bain Jr.'s performance relative to other rookie defenders across the league, factoring in playing time, tackle and sack production, and coaches' voting patterns. The probability will shift based on his actual statistics during the remainder of the 2026 season, injury status, and comparative performance by competing rookies. The award typically resolves after the regular season concludes in early January 2027, when final statistics are tabulated and coaches vote on the winner. Trading volume on Bain Jr.'s contract ($1,321 in 24-hour volume) suggests moderate interest compared to Bailey but reasonable market engagement.
- ›Bain Jr.'s defensive statistics (tackles, sacks, forced fumbles) compared to Bailey and other ranked rookies through season end
- ›Playing time and snap count trends—players with limited opportunities face structural barriers to award consideration regardless of efficiency
- ›Coaching vote distribution—the award is determined by coaches' voting, which may reward different metrics or players than pure statistical leaders
- ›Injury status of competing rookies, particularly Bailey and Downs, which could shift relative performance trajectories
- ›Team success and visibility—defensive rookies on winning or prominent teams may receive greater consideration from voters
What moved the line
- Sep 17Jacob Rodriguez↑12pp7→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Rueben Bain Jr.↓10pp20→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Arvell Reese↓6pp14→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Mansoor Delane↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Jacob Rodriguez↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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