Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
9 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
569 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will David Bailey win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will David Bailey win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: David Bailey
KXNFLDROTY-27-DBAI
Cluster 2
Will Caleb Banks win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Banks win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Banks
KXNFLDROTY-27-CBAN
Cluster 3
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs
KXNFLDROTY-27-CDOW
Cluster 4
Will Mansoor Delane win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Mansoor Delane win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Mansoor Delane
KXNFLDROTY-27-MDEL
Cluster 5
Will Akheem Mesidor win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Akheem Mesidor win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Akheem Mesidor
KXNFLDROTY-27-AMES
Cluster 6
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Sonny Styles
KXNFLDROTY-27-SSTY
Cluster 7
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese
KXNFLDROTY-27-AREE
Cluster 8
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: CJ Allen
KXNFLDROTY-27-CALL
Cluster 9
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Analysis
This 10% probability reflects market expectations that Rueben Bain Jr. will win the NBA Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 season. The low probability suggests the market views him as a long-shot candidate, likely due to competition from other talented defensive rookies or uncertainty about his role and minutes in his team's system. Key factors pushing this estimate up or down include his actual playing time and defensive impact once the season begins, how his statistics compare to other rookie defenders, and whether his team values him in crucial defensive matchups. The award winner is determined after the regular season concludes and voters decide, which will occur in spring 2027 once sufficient performance data accumulates.
- ›Rueben Bain Jr.'s actual defensive statistics and playing time during the 2026-2027 NBA regular season relative to competing rookie defenders
- ›The distribution of votes among multiple defensive rookie candidates—a concentrated field of strong defenders would keep his chances lower than a fragmented one
- ›His team's defensive scheme and whether he receives minutes in high-leverage situations versus limited bench role usage
- ›Voter perception shifts as the season progresses, influenced by media coverage and highlight-reel performances in nationally televised games
- ›Comparison of his advanced defensive metrics (steals, blocks, defensive rating, plus-minus) to other nominees in the final voting stage
What moved the line
- Aug 6Sonny Styles↓8pp21→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Sonny Styles↑7pp11→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Mansoor Delane↓6pp8→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4David Bailey↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Caleb Banks↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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