Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs
Leader sits at 20% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2027-28 season
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
2028-29 season
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$410
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 27, 2040
4909 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs
Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2026-27 season
KXNFLENDSTREAK-40NYJ-2627
Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2030-31 season
KXNFLENDSTREAK-40NYJ-3031
Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2029-30 season
KXNFLENDSTREAK-40NYJ-2930
Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2028-29 season
KXNFLENDSTREAK-40NYJ-2829
Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2027-28 season
KXNFLENDSTREAK-40NYJ-2728
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that the New York Jets return to the playoffs in the 2028-29 season at 11%, making it the most probable outcome among the five-season window. The relatively low probability across all timeframes reflects the team's competitive challenges and the difficulty of winning consistency in the NFL. Market participants are pricing in structural hurdles the organization must overcome, including roster construction, coaching effectiveness, and competitive positioning within a difficult division. The distribution across years suggests meaningful uncertainty about the team's trajectory rather than consensus on near-term recovery. Key drivers include quarterback performance, front-office decision-making, and divisional competition, particularly from established playoff contenders. Regular season performance and draft outcomes over the next 1-2 years will substantially clarify which timeframe becomes most realistic.
- ›Jets' current playoff drought duration and recent win-loss records relative to division standings
- ›Quarterback development and contract situation, including performance metrics and offensive line performance
- ›Strength of schedule and divisional opponents' likely competitive strength in 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons
- ›Draft capital allocation and front-office roster construction decisions in upcoming offseasons
- ›Historical playoff probability for NFL teams in mid-to-low win-rate scenarios versus market consensus on Jets' improvement trajectory
What moved the line
- Sep 172026-27 season↓8pp10→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 122026-27 season↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182026-27 season↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182029-30 season↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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