SimpleFunctions
12 contractsKalshirefreshed 6 min agoCloses Feb 13, 2029 · 1017d

Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 12 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

12 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$11K

12 contracts

Closes

Feb 13, 2029

1017 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (20 days, 20 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-05-02
Aggregate of 12 contracts · 20d

Bracket families

12 clusters across 12 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$5K

Cluster 2

Will Washington win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 4

Will Seattle win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$884

Cluster 5

Will New York G win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$705

Cluster 6

Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$562

Cluster 7

Will San Francisco win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$319

Cluster 8

Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$184

Cluster 9

Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$0

Analysis

This contract predicts whether the Los Angeles R will win the NFC Championship during the 2026 NFL season, currently priced at 8% probability. The relatively low odds reflect that winning a conference championship requires sustained success through multiple playoff rounds—typically only two of 16 teams per conference advance that far. Key drivers for this probability include the team's current roster strength, injury status heading into the season, and their playoff track record. The primary catalyst for price movement will be the team's regular season performance from September through December 2026, with significant shifts likely after key divisional matchups and as the playoff picture clarifies in late autumn. The market will ultimately resolve when the 2027 NFC Championship game is played in early January.

  • Los Angeles R's regular season win-loss record through Week 17 of the 2026 NFL season (directly affects playoff seeding and matchup difficulty)
  • Health and availability of key offensive and defensive players heading into and throughout the 2026 season
  • Historical playoff performance: whether the team has demonstrated championship-caliber execution in previous postseason appearances
  • Strength of competing NFC teams and divisional performance relative to Los Angeles R's conference peers
  • The team's performance in critical September-December games that typically determine playoff qualification and seeding

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.