SimpleFunctions
10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 22, 2027 · 181d

Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$21K

10 contracts

Closes

Feb 22, 2027

181 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 16% (16 days, 16 points)Aggregate: 16% on 2026-08-25
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 16d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$8K

Cluster 2

Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$5K

Cluster 3

Will Seattle win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$3K

Cluster 4

Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$2K

Cluster 5

Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 6

Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$869

Cluster 7

Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$581

Cluster 8

Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$342

Cluster 9

Will San Francisco win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$316

Cluster 10

Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC Championship

1 contract$17

Analysis

The 9% probability reflects market expectations that the Los Angeles Rams will win the NFC Championship game scheduled for early February 2027. This estimate positions the Rams as a long-shot contender, trailing San Francisco (8¢) and Seattle (11¢) among NFC teams. The Rams' low odds likely reflect concerns about roster depth, recent performance trends, or questions about quarterback durability entering the 2026 season. The probability would shift significantly based on the team's regular-season performance from September through December 2026, with strong starts potentially doubling their odds or weak performances pushing them lower. The championship game outcome in February 2027 will ultimately resolve this market, though most movement occurs during the regular season as win-loss records clarify playoff positioning. Trading volume on the Rams contract remains modest at $1,205 over 24 hours compared to higher-probability teams.

  • Rams regular season record through December 2026 will be the primary driver of probability shifts, with each win or loss materially affecting playoff positioning odds
  • San Francisco and Seattle's 8-11¢ odds suggest the NFC is viewed as dominated by 2-3 teams, constraining the Rams' ceiling even if they perform well
  • Lower 24-hour trading volume ($1,205) on the Rams contract versus San Francisco ($14,964) indicates reduced market confidence or speculative interest in longer-shot outcomes
  • Quarterback health and offensive line performance during the 2026 regular season will directly impact the team's ability to reach and win the championship game
  • The Rams must finish among the top 2 seeds in their division or secure a wild card position to reach the playoffs, making September-November performance critical for championship probability

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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