Will Lane Johnson announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
14 contracts
Closes
Sep 30, 2029
1107 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lane Johnson announce his retirement before the 202
Will Lane Johnson announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season?: Before the 2027-28 season
KXNFLRETIRE-LJOHNSON65-2728
Will Lane Johnson announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season?: Before the 2029-30 season
KXNFLRETIRE-LJOHNSON65-2930
Will Lane Johnson announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season?: Before the 2028-29 season
KXNFLRETIRE-LJOHNSON65-2829
Cluster 2
Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 202
Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season?: Before the 2027-28 season
KXNFLRETIRE-KCOUSINS8-2728
Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season?: Before the 2029-30 season
KXNFLRETIRE-KCOUSINS8-2930
Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season?: Before the 2028-29 season
KXNFLRETIRE-KCOUSINS8-2829
Cluster 3
Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 202
Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season?: Before the 2027-28 season
KXNFLRETIRE-DHENRY22-2728
Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season?: Before the 2029-30 season
KXNFLRETIRE-DHENRY22-2930
Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season?: Before the 2028-29 season
KXNFLRETIRE-DHENRY22-2829
Cluster 4
Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 202
Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season?: Before the 2027-28 season
KXNFLRETIRE-DADAMS17-2728
Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season?: Before the 2029-30 season
KXNFLRETIRE-DADAMS17-2930
Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season?: Before the 2028-29 season
KXNFLRETIRE-DADAMS17-2829
Cluster 5
Will Matthew Stafford announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season
Cluster 6
Will Joe Flacco announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season
Analysis
This market estimates a 35% chance that Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Lane Johnson will announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season begins, roughly three years from now. Johnson, currently 36 years old, has played at an elite level throughout his career but faces the typical aging curve that affects professional athletes. The probability reflects uncertainty about his health trajectory, contract status, and personal preferences regarding when to exit the sport. Most NFL players in their late 30s either retire or face diminishing performance, but some continue competing effectively. The market will likely shift based on Johnson's performance during the 2026 and 2027 seasons, any significant injuries, and statements from the player or Eagles organization about long-term plans.
- ›Lane Johnson's age (36 in 2026) and historical injury patterns in elite offensive linemen
- ›Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line depth and willingness to retain aging veterans at premium contracts
- ›Johnson's public statements about his intentions to play and franchise's contract negotiations between now and 2029
- ›Performance metrics during 2026-2028 seasons, particularly any decline in games played or Pro Bowl selection
- ›NFL retirement announcement patterns showing most tackles aged 37+ either retire or significantly reduce playing time
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before the 2028-29 season↓66pp79→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Before the 2029-30 season↓62pp66→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before the 2029-30 season↑62pp4→66¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Before the 2029-30 season↓48pp54→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before the 2029-30 season↑48pp6→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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