Will Josh Allen be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$401
8 contracts
Closes
Sep 9, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Matthew Stafford be #” vs “Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be #”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew Stafford be #
Cluster 2
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be #
Cluster 3
Will Myles Garrett be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List
Will Myles Garrett be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Myles Garrett
KXNFLT100-26R1-MGARRETT95
Cluster 4
Will Patrick Mahomes be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List
Will Patrick Mahomes be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Patrick Mahomes
KXNFLT100-26R1-PMAHOMES15
Cluster 5
Will Will Anderson Jr. be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List
Will Will Anderson Jr. be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Will Anderson Jr.
KXNFLT100-26R1-WANDERSON51
Cluster 6
Will Dak Prescott be #2 on the Pro Football Top 100 List
Will Dak Prescott be #2 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Dak Prescott
KXNFLT100-26R2-DPRESCOTT4
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Josh Allen will be voted the #1 player on the NFL Network's Pro Football Top 100 list in 2026. Allen's 14% probability places him fourth among active candidates, behind Myles Garrett (32%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (21%), and Ja'Marr Chase (9%). The Top 100 list is determined by votes from current NFL players, making recent on-field performance, playoff success, and overall impact the primary drivers. Allen's ranking will depend on how his 2025 season unfolds—particularly whether the Bills advance deep into the playoffs and whether his statistical output matches or exceeds competitors. The list is typically released in summer, which means the 2025 regular season and playoffs will be the decisive period for determining candidacy. Historical voting patterns show that recent championship runs and individual accolades heavily influence final rankings.
- ›Josh Allen's playoff performance and team success during the 2025 NFL season, as deep playoff runs historically correlate with top rankings
- ›Comparative voting strength of competing candidates, particularly Garrett and Smith-Njigba, whose current market prices suggest higher player preference
- ›Allen's regular season statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, turnovers) relative to peer group in 2025
- ›Recency bias in player voting, which typically favors standout performances from the immediately preceding season
- ›The timing and methodology of player voting for the Top 100 list, which occurs after the season concludes
What moved the line
- Aug 6Jaxon Smith-Njigba↓17pp31→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Matthew Stafford↓15pp42→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Myles Garrett↓13pp73→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Matthew Stafford↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Jaxon Smith-Njigba↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 0d
- Who will win the WA-4 primarylast 3% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026last 97% · 2d
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 4d
- Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70last 97% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.