Will there be over 18.5 points scored
Leader sits at 78% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Over 27.5 points scored
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
Over 38.5 points scored
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$996
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 17, 2026
40 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be over
Will there be over 27.5 points scored?: Over 27.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13DALNYG-28
Will there be over 44.5 points scored?: Over 44.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP09NESEA-45
Will there be over 49.5 points scored?: Over 49.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13NODET-50
Will there be over 48.5 points scored?: Over 48.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP10SFLAR-49
Will there be over 46.5 points scored?: Over 46.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13BUFHOU-47
Will there be over 40.5 points scored?: Over 40.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13MIALV-41
Will there be over 57.5 points scored?: Over 57.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13DALNYG-58
Will there be over 55.5 points scored?: Over 55.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13CHICAR-56
Will there be over 46.5 points scored?: Over 46.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13ARILAC-47
Will there be over 51.5 points scored?: Over 51.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP14DENKC-52
Will there be over 56.5 points scored?: Over 56.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13WASPHI-57
Will there be over 49.5 points scored?: Over 49.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13MIALV-50
Will there be over 54.5 points scored?: Over 54.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13GBMIN-55
Will there be over 49.5 points scored?: Over 49.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13CLEJAC-50
Will there be over 53.5 points scored?: Over 53.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13BUFHOU-54
Will there be over 48.5 points scored?: Over 48.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13TBCIN-49
Will there be over 42.5 points scored?: Over 42.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13GBMIN-43
Will there be over 38.5 points scored?: Over 38.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13ATLPIT-39
Will there be over 54.5 points scored?: Over 54.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13TBCIN-55
Will there be over 54.5 points scored?: Over 54.5 points scored
KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP13BALIND-55
Analysis
This market estimates a 51% probability that a specific NFL game (Carolina vs. Arizona on August 6, 2026) will exceed 18.5 combined points. The contract pricing reveals sharp disagreement: while the over-18.5 line trades at just 13 cents, the over-35.5 line trades at 48 cents, suggesting traders view a low-scoring game as most likely. Score totals depend heavily on offensive execution, weather conditions, and defensive performance. The game resolves on August 6, 2026, when the final score is recorded. Current market liquidity is minimal (zero 24-hour volume on the 18.5 threshold), indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The substantial gap between the 15.5-point threshold (13 cents) and 35.5-point threshold (48 cents) suggests the market clusters probability mass in the 16-35 point range, with the core uncertainty around whether the total lands above or below 18.5.
- ›The over-35.5 contract at 48 cents implies roughly 52% probability for totals exceeding 35.5 points, indicating most probability mass falls between 16-35 points rather than at extremes
- ›Zero 24-hour volume on the 18.5 line suggests sparse liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent information updates
- ›The implied probability of 51% for over-18.5 sits directly above the threshold, meaning traders assign near-equal odds to outcomes just above versus just below this boundary
- ›Week 4 preseason games typically feature younger roster players, reserve defenses, and limited offensive coordination compared to regular season, historically producing lower point totals
- ›Game resolution occurs August 6, 2026; no interim data releases or events will clarify expectations before market settlement
What moved the line
- Aug 5Over 27.5 points scored↑48pp26→74¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Over 49.5 points scored↑28pp14→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Over 48.5 points scored↑20pp27→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Over 40.5 points scored↑20pp14→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Over 46.5 points scored↑19pp28→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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