Will Alec Pierce play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 74% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
74%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
19 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Josh Jacobs play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Josh Jacobs play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Josh Jacobs
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-JJACOBS8
Cluster 2
Will Luther Burden III play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Luther Burden III play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Luther Burden III
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-LBURDEN10
Cluster 3
Will Sam LaPorta play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Sam LaPorta play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Sam LaPorta
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-SLAPORTA87
Cluster 4
Will George Kittle play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will George Kittle play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: George Kittle
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-GKITTLE85
Cluster 5
Will Christian McCaffrey play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Cluster 6
Will Alec Pierce play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Alec Pierce play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Alec Pierce
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-APIERCE14
Cluster 7
Will Jeremiyah Love play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Jeremiyah Love play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Jeremiyah Love
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-JLOVE4
Cluster 8
Will Ja'Marr Chase play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Ja'Marr Chase play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-JCHASE1
Cluster 9
Will Patrick Mahomes play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Patrick Mahomes play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-PMAHOMES15
Cluster 10
Will Ashton Jeanty play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Ashton Jeanty play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Ashton Jeanty
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-AJEANTY2
Cluster 11
Will Vita Vea play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Vita Vea play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Vita Vea
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-VVEA50
Cluster 12
Will Malik Nabers play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Malik Nabers play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Malik Nabers
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-MNABERS1
Cluster 13
Will Kenyon Sadiq play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Kenyon Sadiq play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Kenyon Sadiq
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-KSADIQ16
Cluster 14
Will Puka Nacua play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Puka Nacua play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Puka Nacua
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-PNACUA12
Cluster 15
Will Tyler Warren play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Tyler Warren play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Tyler Warren
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-TWARREN84
Cluster 16
Will Makai Lemon play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Makai Lemon play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Makai Lemon
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-MLEMON9
Cluster 17
Will Breece Hall play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Breece Hall play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Breece Hall
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-BHALL20
Cluster 18
Will Chuba Hubbard play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Chuba Hubbard play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Chuba Hubbard
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-CHUBBARD30
Cluster 19
Will Emeka Egbuka play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Will Emeka Egbuka play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Emeka Egbuka
KXNFLWEEKCOMPETE-26W1-EEGBUKA2
Analysis
This contract reflects an estimated 74% chance that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce will take the field during the team's first regular-season game in 2026. The probability sits between comparable high-confidence players like Mahomes (91%) and lower-confidence players like Vea (73%), suggesting moderate uncertainty about his availability. Factors driving this level include his current health status, depth chart positioning, and any injuries sustained during preseason. The contract will resolve once Week 1 games are played in early September 2026. The main catalyst determining the outcome will be the Colts' official game-day roster and inactives list released before kickoff, along with any injuries Pierce or competing receivers sustain during August preseason practices.
- ›Pierce's injury history and current physical condition heading into the 2026 preseason
- ›His position in the Colts' receiver depth chart relative to other available offensive weapons
- ›Whether the Colts face a favorable or challenging Week 1 opponent affecting roster management decisions
- ›Any significant injuries sustained during preseason games or practices in August 2026
- ›The team's offensive gameplan and expected usage patterns for wide receivers in their opening matchup
What moved the line
- Aug 22Makai Lemon↑24pp37→61¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Makai Lemon↑24pp61→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Josh Jacobs↓23pp80→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Ja'Marr Chase↑22pp64→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26George Kittle↓21pp39→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in sports
- Will Tim Sharfman be selected to be Akron's Offensive Coordinator of the Gamelast 10% · 0d
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...last 13% · 60d
- How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this seasonlast 93% · 69d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 71d
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 82d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.