Will Paige Beauchemin be the Democratic nominee for NH-02
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
56%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$115
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican nominee for NH-01
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Anthony DiLorenzo
KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-ADIL
Cluster 2
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican nominee for NH-01
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Hollie Noveletsky
KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-HNOV
Cluster 3
Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for NH-02
Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for NH-02?: Maggie Goodlander
KXNHPRIMARY-02D26-MGOO
Cluster 4
Will Lily Tang Williams be the Republican nominee for NH-02
Will Lily Tang Williams be the Republican nominee for NH-02?: Lily Tang Williams
KXNHPRIMARY-02R26-LWIL
Cluster 5
Will Victor Orlando be the Republican nominee for NH-02
Will Victor Orlando be the Republican nominee for NH-02?: Victor Orlando
KXNHPRIMARY-02R26-VORL
Analysis
This probability represents the current estimated chance that Paige Beauchemin will be selected as the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. The 37% assessment reflects significant competition within the Democratic primary field, with Maggie Goodlander priced at 92 cents on related contracts, indicating she is viewed as the frontrunner. Beauchemin's probability could shift based on fundraising totals, endorsements from state party figures, polling data as the election cycle progresses, and performance in any debates or public forums. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, providing definitive confirmation of the nominee. Until then, market movements will likely respond to campaign developments including candidate spending reports, media coverage, and any organizational momentum within New Hampshire Democratic circles.
- ›Maggie Goodlander is priced at 92 cents on the Democratic NH-02 nominee contract, suggesting she is the primary competitor and Beauchemin faces a crowded field
- ›Low trading volume on Beauchemin's contract ($25 24h vol) indicates limited market conviction and potential illiquidity that could affect price accuracy
- ›The 37% probability implies a three-way or multi-candidate race where no single candidate has dominant support
- ›Primary election timing and filing deadlines will serve as key decision points for candidate participation and viability
- ›Candidate fundraising reports and voter polling releases between now and the primary will provide concrete performance metrics to reassess probabilities
What moved the line
- Jun 18Anthony DiLorenzo↓3pp70→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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