North Carolina Courage vs. Kansas City Current
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 7% — a 30pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
18 contracts
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
30pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$46K
19 contracts
Top contract
52¢
$15K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 7¢ · 30pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (7¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
11 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kansas City vs Seattle” vs “North Carolina vs Virginia Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kansas City vs Seattle
Kansas City vs Seattle Winner?: Seattle
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031610KCSEA-SEA
Kansas City vs Seattle Winner?: Kansas City
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031610KCSEA-KC
Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-8
Kansas City vs Seattle First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031610KCSEA
Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-9
Cluster 2
North Carolina vs Virginia Winner
Cluster 3
Will Kansas City win
Cluster 4
Will Zero Tenacity win
Cluster 5
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 6
NFL Champion 2027: Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Champion 2027: Kansas City Chiefs
0xee307e…763d
Cluster 7
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 8
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series?: North Carolina
KXNCAABASEBALL-26-UNC
Cluster 9
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 10
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 11
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
What moved the line
- May 3Patrick Mahomes↑26pp35→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Patrick Mahomes↓25pp38→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Justin Fields↓22pp53→31¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Kansas City Chiefs↑14pp6→20¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Kansas City↓13pp47→34¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.