North Carolina Courage vs. Kansas City Current
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
965 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Kansas City win” vs “Will the margin of victory”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win
Cluster 2
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 4
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 5
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 6
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Analysis
This 28% probability reflects market expectations for North Carolina Courage to defeat Kansas City Current in what appears to be a soccer match. The significant 24-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about the teams' relative strength or match circumstances. The low contract volume on Polymarket raises questions about whether that venue's pricing reflects genuine liquidity or sparse trading. Resolution depends on team form, injury status, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The contracts listed span college baseball, NFL championships, and NFL team speculation—indicating potential category confusion across venues that may explain the divergent pricing rather than substantive disagreement about the specific match outcome.
- ›Polymarket's 7% price derives from only one contract with limited trading volume, suggesting it may not represent informed consensus on this specific matchup
- ›Kalshi's higher concentration of contracts and volume ($24K+ 24h vol) provides a larger sample of trader opinion but still shows meaningful uncertainty given the median around 31%
- ›Contract titles reference college baseball, NFL championships, and player transfers rather than professional women's soccer, indicating possible labeling errors or venue confusion affecting price reliability
- ›North Carolina Courage and Kansas City Current compete in the NWSL; match outcome depends on current seasonal standings, recent form, injury reports, and scheduled fixture date which are not specified in available contract data
- ›The 24-percentage-point cross-venue gap is larger than typical arbitrage opportunities, suggesting either liquidity constraints on one venue or substantive disagreement about the underlying event definition
What moved the line
- Jun 23Kansas City↓16pp31→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Kansas City↓14pp40→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Kansas City↓8pp44→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 9+ pts↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Kansas City↑6pp35→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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