North Carolina Courage vs. Kansas City Current - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
966 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Kansas City win” vs “Will the margin of victory”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win
Cluster 2
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Cluster 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 4
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 5
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 6
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Analysis
This market is pricing the probability that an NWSL match between North Carolina Courage and Kansas City Current ends with more than 4.5 total goals scored. The 27% aggregate probability reflects a significant gap between Kalshi (30%) and Polymarket (6%), suggesting disagreement about whether these teams' offensive and defensive patterns typically produce high-scoring contests. The pricing would move higher if either team shows stronger attacking form or defensive vulnerabilities in recent matches, and lower if defensive solidity or goalkeeper performance becomes the dominant pattern. The match result will resolve this uncertainty when the game is played, providing definitive data on total goals scored.
- ›Recent goal-scoring rates for both teams in league play, including shots on target and conversion efficiency
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these specific opponents in NWSL matchups
- ›Current defensive metrics and goals-against averages for Kansas City and North Carolina
- ›Injury or personnel status of key attacking and defensive players on both rosters
- ›Weather conditions and venue factors on match day that typically affect scoring pace in women's soccer
What moved the line
- Jun 16Kansas City↑23pp21→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Kansas City↓16pp31→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Kansas City↓14pp40→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Kansas City↓8pp44→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 9+ pts↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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