Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4.7M
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 15, 2026
220 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball
Cluster 2
Will the Los Angeles L win the 2026 Pro Basketball
Cluster 3
Will the Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Championship
Will the Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Championship?: Philadelphia
KXNBAEAST-26-PHI
Cluster 4
Will the Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: Detroit
KXNBA-26-DET
Cluster 5
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio
KXNBA-26-SAS
Cluster 6
Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: Oklahoma City
KXNBA-26-OKC
What moved the line
- May 6New York↑11pp36→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York↑9pp27→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Philadelphia↓7pp12→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 6San Antonio↓6pp22→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Philadelphia↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 d ago.