Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$148
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 15, 2026
149 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win the Japan NPB
Will Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win the Japan NPB?: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
KXNPB-26-HOK
Cluster 2
Will Yomiuri Giants win the Japan NPB
Will Yomiuri Giants win the Japan NPB?: Yomiuri Giants
KXNPB-26-YOM
Cluster 3
Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB
Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB?: Fukuoka Hawks
KXNPB-26-FUK
Cluster 4
Will Hanshin Tigers win the Japan NPB
Will Hanshin Tigers win the Japan NPB?: Hanshin Tigers
KXNPB-26-HAN
Cluster 5
Will Orix Buffaloes win the Japan NPB
Will Orix Buffaloes win the Japan NPB?: Orix Buffaloes
KXNPB-26-ORI
Cluster 6
Will Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the Japan NPB
Will Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the Japan NPB?: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
KXNPB-26-TOH
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Fukuoka Hawks will win Japan's NPB championship this season. At 3 cents (implying roughly a 3% contract price), the Hawks are priced among the lowest favorites, suggesting traders view them as significant underdogs compared to teams like the Saitama Seibu Lions (20 cents). The Hawks' probability depends on their current regular-season performance, roster health, and ability to execute in playoff competition. The season typically concludes in October with championship resolution, providing a clear resolution date. Market pricing may shift based on mid-season standings, trade deadline activity, and injury reports affecting key players. The low trading volume ($0 in recent 24 hours) indicates minimal market interest in this specific outcome currently.
- ›Fukuoka Hawks' current wins-loss record and standing in the Pacific League as of mid-June 2026
- ›Comparative strength of roster construction and star player availability relative to Saitama Lions (20¢ implied favorite) and other contenders
- ›Historical playoff performance of the Hawks organization in recent seasons and their ability to sustain performance through October
- ›Mid-season trade deadline acquisitions or injuries to key players that would materially affect championship odds
- ›NPB playoff format structure and the Hawks' seeding trajectory that would determine their path to the championship
What moved the line
- Jul 15Fukuoka Hawks↑34pp5→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters↓22pp39→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Fukuoka Hawks↓10pp39→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Yomiuri Giants↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Yomiuri Giants↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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